Shrum Trisha R, Markowitz Ezra, Buck Holly, Gregory Robin, van der Linden Sander, Attari Shahzeen Z, Van Boven Leaf
Department of Community Development and Applied Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA.
Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA.
Interface Focus. 2020 Oct 6;10(5):20200002. doi: 10.1098/rsfs.2020.0002. Epub 2020 Aug 14.
The adoption of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies at a scale sufficient to draw down carbon emissions will require both individual and collective decisions that happen over time in different locations to enable a massive scale-up. Members of the public and other decision-makers have not yet formed strong attitudes, beliefs and preferences about most of the individual CDR technologies or taken positions on policy mechanisms and tax-payer support for CDR. Much of the current discourse among scientists, policy analysts and policy-makers about CDR implicitly assumes that decision-makers will exhibit unbiased, rational behaviour that weighs the costs and benefits of CDR. In this paper, we review behavioural decision theory and discuss how public reactions to CDR will be different from and more complex than that implied by rational choice theory. Given that people do not form attitudes and opinions in a vacuum, we outline how fundamental social normative principles shape important intergroup, intragroup and social network processes that influence support for or opposition to CDR technologies. We also point to key insights that may help stakeholders craft public outreach strategies that anticipate the nuances of how people evaluate the risks and benefits of CDR approaches. Finally, we outline critical research questions to understand the behavioural components of CDR to plan for an emerging public response.
要采用足以减少碳排放的二氧化碳去除（CDR）技术，需要个人和集体随着时间推移在不同地点做出决策，以实现大规模推广。公众和其他决策者对大多数单个CDR技术尚未形成强烈的态度、信念和偏好，也未就CDR的政策机制和纳税人支持问题表明立场。目前科学家、政策分析师和政策制定者之间关于CDR的许多讨论都隐含地假定，决策者会表现出公正、理性的行为，权衡CDR的成本和收益。在本文中，我们回顾行为决策理论，并讨论公众对CDR的反应将如何不同于理性选择理论所暗示的反应，且更为复杂。鉴于人们并非在真空中形成态度和观点，我们概述基本社会规范原则如何塑造重要的群体间、群体内和社会网络过程，这些过程会影响对CDR技术的支持或反对。我们还指出一些关键见解，可能有助于利益相关者制定公众宣传策略，以预见人们评估CDR方法的风险和收益的细微差别。最后，我们概述了关键研究问题，以了解CDR的行为组成部分，为即将出现的公众反应做好规划。
