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Reflecting on the safety zoo: Developing an integrated pandemics barrier model using early lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic.

作者信息

Lindhout Paul, Reniers Genserik

机构信息

Delft University of Technology, TPM Safety & Security Science Group (S3G), the Netherlands.

KULeuven, Campus Brussels - Center for Corporate Sustainability (CEDON), Belgium.

出版信息

Saf Sci. 2020 Oct;130:104907. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104907. Epub 2020 Jul 10.


DOI:10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104907
PMID:32834514
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7351432/
Abstract

Our current predicament, the Covid-19 pandemic is first of all a health crisis. However, social disruption and economic damage are becoming visible some 7 months after the Wuhan City outbreak early December 2019. The authors wondered what could have been done better in prevention and repression of the Covid-19 pandemic from a safety management and risk control point of view. Within a case study framework, the authors gathered literature on pandemics, about country response effectiveness, and about human behaviour in the face of danger. The results consist of a safety management oriented narrative about the current pandemic, several critical observations about the current paradigms and shortcomings of preparation, and a number of opportunities for improvements of countermeasures. Many of the proverbial animals in the representing typical behaviours, were observed in action. Based on well proven risk analysis methods - risk management, event tree, scenarios, bowtie - the authors then analyse the generic sequence of events in a pandemic, starting from root causes, through prevention, via the outbreak of a pathogen, through mitigation to long term effects. Based on this analysis the authors propose an integrated pandemics barrier model. In this model the core is a generic pandemic scenario that is distinguishing five risk controllable sequential steps before an outbreak. The authors contend that the prevention of pandemics via safety management based biohazard risk control is both possible and of paramount importance since it can stop pandemic scenarios altogether even before an outbreak.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0be1/7351432/74d44608cba5/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0be1/7351432/ad5c0868ec35/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0be1/7351432/42d90cc3fca2/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0be1/7351432/abeb2e00d719/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0be1/7351432/74d44608cba5/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0be1/7351432/ad5c0868ec35/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0be1/7351432/42d90cc3fca2/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0be1/7351432/abeb2e00d719/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0be1/7351432/74d44608cba5/gr4_lrg.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.

Nat Commun. 2020-11-11

[2]
Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020-6-11

[3]
Biosafety and biosecurity.

J Biosaf Biosecur. 2019-3

[4]
Viral and host factors related to the clinical outcome of COVID-19.

Nature. 2020-5-20

[5]
Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) Current Status and Future Perspectives: A Narrative Review.

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020-4-14

[6]
Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

Nat Med. 2020-3-19

[7]
Dual-Functional Plasmonic Photothermal Biosensors for Highly Accurate Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Detection.

ACS Nano. 2020-4-13

[8]
Susceptibility of ferrets, cats, dogs, and other domesticated animals to SARS-coronavirus 2.

Science. 2020-4-8

[9]
Cross-Country Comparison of Case Fatality Rates of COVID-19/SARS-COV-2.

Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2020-4

[10]
The First 75 Days of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak: Recent Advances, Prevention, and Treatment.

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020-3-30

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