Taghikhah Firouzeh, Voinov Alexey, Shukla Nagesh, Filatova Tatiana, Anufriev Mikhail
Center on Persuasive Systems for Wise Adaptive Living, School of Information, Systems and Modelling, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia.
University of Twente, Netherlands.
Eur J Oper Res. 2021 Feb 1;288(3):852-868. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.06.036. Epub 2020 Jun 27.
The current intense food production-consumption is one of the main sources of environmental pollution and contributes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Organic farming is a potential way to reduce environmental impacts by excluding synthetic pesticides and fertilizers from the process. Despite ecological benefits, it is unlikely that conversion to organic can be financially viable for farmers, without additional support and incentives from consumers. This study models the interplay between consumer preferences and socio-environmental issues related to agriculture and food production. We operationalize the novel concept of extended agro-food supply chain and simulate adaptive behavior of farmers, food processors, retailers, and customers. Not only the operational factors (e.g., price, quantity, and lead time), but also the behavioral factors (e.g., attitude, perceived control, social norms, habits, and personal goals) of the food suppliers and consumers are considered in order to foster organic farming. We propose an integrated approach combining agent-based, discrete-event, and system dynamics modeling for a case of wine supply chain. Findings demonstrate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed model over the traditional sustainable supply chain models in incorporating the feedback between consumers and producers and analyzing management scenarios that can urge farmers to expand organic agriculture. Results further indicate that demand-side participation in transition pathways towards sustainable agriculture can become a time-consuming effort if not accompanied by the middle actors between consumers and farmers. In practice, our proposed model may serve as a decision-support tool to guide evidence-based policymaking in the food and agriculture sector.
当前紧张的食物生产与消费是环境污染的主要来源之一，并且导致了人为温室气体排放。有机农业是一种通过在生产过程中不使用合成农药和化肥来减少环境影响的潜在方式。尽管具有生态效益，但如果没有消费者的额外支持和激励，对农民来说转向有机农业在经济上不太可能可行。本研究模拟了消费者偏好与农业和食品生产相关的社会环境问题之间的相互作用。我们实施了扩展农业食品供应链的新概念，并模拟了农民、食品加工商、零售商和消费者的适应性行为。为了促进有机农业，不仅考虑了食品供应商和消费者的运营因素（如价格、数量和交货时间），还考虑了行为因素（如态度、感知控制、社会规范、习惯和个人目标）。我们针对葡萄酒供应链案例提出了一种结合基于主体、离散事件和系统动力学建模的综合方法。研究结果表明，所提出的模型在纳入消费者与生产者之间的反馈以及分析能够促使农民扩大有机农业的管理情景方面，比传统的可持续供应链模型更具可行性和优越性。结果还进一步表明，如果没有消费者与农民之间的中间参与者，需求方参与可持续农业转型之路可能会很耗时。在实践中，我们提出的模型可作为一种决策支持工具，以指导食品和农业部门基于证据的政策制定。
