Institute of Radiation Medicine, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, 85764, Neuherberg, Germany.
IAEA Environment Laboratories, International Atomic Energy Agency, 2444, Seibersdorf, Austria.
Radiat Environ Biophys. 2020 Nov;59(4):601-629. doi: 10.1007/s00411-020-00866-7. Epub 2020 Aug 26.
ProZES is a software tool for estimating the probability that a given cancer was caused by preceding exposure to ionising radiation. ProZES calculates this probability, the assigned share, for solid cancers and hematopoietic malignant diseases, in cases of exposures to low-LET radiation, and for lung cancer in cases of exposure to radon. User-specified inputs include birth year, sex, type of diagnosed cancer, age at diagnosis, radiation exposure history and characteristics, and smoking behaviour for lung cancer. Cancer risk models are an essential part of ProZES. Linking disease and exposure to radiation involves several methodological aspects, and assessment of uncertainties received particular attention. ProZES systematically uses the principle of multi-model inference. Models of radiation risk were either newly developed or critically re-evaluated for ProZES, including dedicated models for frequent types of cancer and, for less common diseases, models for groups of functionally similar cancer sites. The low-LET models originate mostly from the study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Risks predicted by these models are adjusted to be applicable to the population of Germany and to different time periods. Adjustment factors for low dose rates and for a reduced risk during the minimum latency time between exposure and cancer are also applied. The development of the methodology and software was initiated and supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) taking up advice by the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK, Strahlenschutzkommission). These provide the scientific basis to support decision making on compensation claims regarding malignancies following occupational exposure to radiation in Germany.
ProZES 是一款用于估算特定癌症是否由先前接触电离辐射引起的概率的软件工具。ProZES 为低 LET 辐射暴露情况下的实体癌和造血系统恶性疾病以及氡暴露情况下的肺癌计算此概率，即分配份额。用户指定的输入包括出生年份、性别、诊断出的癌症类型、诊断时的年龄、辐射暴露史和特征以及肺癌的吸烟行为。癌症风险模型是 ProZES 的重要组成部分。将疾病与辐射暴露联系起来涉及几个方法学方面，对不确定性的评估受到特别关注。ProZES 系统地使用多模型推理原则。辐射风险模型要么是为 ProZES 新开发的，要么是经过严格重新评估的，包括针对常见癌症类型的专用模型，以及针对功能相似的癌症部位的少见疾病的模型。低 LET 模型主要来自广岛和长崎原子弹幸存者的研究。这些模型预测的风险经过调整，适用于德国人口和不同时期。还应用了低剂量率的调整因子以及暴露与癌症之间最短潜伏期内风险降低的调整因子。该方法和软件的开发由德国联邦环境、自然保护和核安全部（BMU）发起并得到支持，同时采纳了德国放射防护委员会（SSK）的建议。这些为支持德国职业性辐射暴露后恶性肿瘤赔偿索赔的决策提供了科学依据。
