Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America.
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2020 Aug 28;15(8):e0237918. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237918. eCollection 2020.
Agricultural crop yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural crop yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally through international commodity markets. Here we present a replication study of previous investigations (with different models) showing that potential direct domestic climate effects on crop yields in the U.S. have financial consequences for U.S. producers on the same order of magnitude but opposite in sign to indirect financial impacts on U.S. producers from climate effects on crop yields elsewhere in the world. We conclude that the analysis of country-specific financial climate impacts cannot ignore indirect effects arising through international markets. We find our results to be robust across a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts analyzed in the multi-sector dynamic global model GCAM.
农业作物产量容易受到未来温度、降水和其他地球系统因素的变化的影响。这些地球系统物理属性的未来变化及其对农业作物产量的影响具有高度不确定性。美国农业生产者无论在国内还是通过国际商品市场在国际上，都会受到这些变化的影响。在这里，我们进行了一项先前调查的复制研究（使用不同的模型），结果表明，美国国内气候对作物产量的潜在直接影响会给美国生产者带来同样规模但方向相反的财务影响，即气候对世界其他地区作物产量的影响对美国生产者的间接财务影响。我们的结论是，分析特定国家的财务气候影响时，不能忽略通过国际市场产生的间接影响。我们发现，我们的结果在多部门动态全球模型 GCAM 中分析的各种潜在未来作物产量影响中是稳健的。
