Sampedro Jon, Waldhoff Stephanie, Sarofim Marcus, Van Dingenen Rita
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA.
Basque Centre For Climate Change (BC3), Leioa, Spain.
Environ Resour Econ (Dordr). 2023 Feb 21;84:1095-1126. doi: 10.1007/s10640-022-00750-6.
Methane directly contributes to air pollution, as an ozone precursor, and to climate change, generating physical and economic damages to different systems, namely agriculture, vegetation, energy, human health, or biodiversity. The methane-related damages to climate, measured as the Social Cost of Methane, and to human health have been analyzed by different studies and considered by government rulemaking in the last decades, but the ozone-related damages to crop revenues associated to methane emissions have not been incorporated to policy agenda. Using a combination of the Global Change Analysis Model and the TM5-FASST Scenario Screening Tool, we estimate that global marginal agricultural damages range from ~423 to 556 $2010/t-CH, of which 98 $2010/t-CH occur in the USA, which is the most affected region due to its role as a major crop producer, followed by China, EU-15, and India. These damages would represent 39-59% of the climate damages and 28-64% of the human health damages associated with methane emissions by previous studies. The marginal damages to crop revenues calculated in this study complement the damages from methane to climate and human health, and provides valuable information to be considered in future cost-benefits analyses.
甲烷作为臭氧前体直接导致空气污染，并造成气候变化，给不同系统，即农业、植被、能源、人类健康或生物多样性带来物理和经济损害。过去几十年里，不同研究分析了甲烷对气候造成的损害（以甲烷的社会成本衡量）以及对人类健康的损害，政府在制定规则时也予以了考虑，但甲烷排放对作物收益造成的与臭氧相关的损害尚未纳入政策议程。通过结合使用全球变化分析模型和TM5-FASST情景筛选工具，我们估计全球农业边际损害在2010年约为423至556美元/吨甲烷，其中美国为98美元/吨甲烷，美国作为主要作物生产国，是受影响最严重的地区，其次是中国欧盟15国和印度。这些损害将占先前研究中与甲烷排放相关的气候损害的39%至59%，以及人类健康损害的28%至64%。本研究计算得出的作物收益边际损害补充了甲烷对气候和人类健康造成的损害，并为未来的成本效益分析提供了有价值的信息以供参考。
