Business School, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; Development Institute of Jiangbei New Area, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China; Henan Key Laboratory of Earth System Observation and Modeling, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China; Henan Overseas Expertise Introduction Center for Discipline Innovation (Ecological Protection and Rural Revitalization along the Yellow River), China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Nov 20;796:148971. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148971. Epub 2021 Jul 16.
China has long faced an uneven distribution of physical water resources, which has been further exacerbated by the virtual water transfers embodied in the interregional trade. To alleviate such unfavorable influences of interregional virtual water flows on regional water scarcity, this paper first combined a multi-regional input-output model and a structural decomposition analysis to identify the major driving forces behind the changes in interregional virtual water flows from 2002 to 2012, and then conducted a scenario analysis to explore solutions for sustainable water resource management in China. Results indicated that the virtual water outflows from water-deficient developing regions (Northwest and Northeast) to water-abundant developed regions, such as East Coast and South Coast, have been increasingly intensified from 2002 to 2012. During the period, the final demand predominated the increase of virtual water transfers, while the improvement of water use efficiency dominated the decline in virtual water flows from 2002 to 2012. Results from the designed scenarios indicated that the negative impacts of interregional virtual water flows on the water stress can be effectively relieved, indicating the high priority of regional water use efficiency improvement, especially in water-starved regions.
中国长期面临水资源分布不均的问题，而区域间贸易所体现的虚拟水资源转移进一步加剧了这一问题。为了缓解区域间虚拟水流对区域水资源短缺的不利影响，本文首先结合多区域投入产出模型和结构分解分析，确定了 2002 年至 2012 年期间区域间虚拟水流变化的主要驱动因素，然后进行了情景分析，以探讨中国水资源可持续管理的解决方案。结果表明，2002 年至 2012 年期间，缺水发展中地区（西北和东北）向水资源丰富的发达地区（东南沿海）的虚拟水流出不断加剧。在此期间，最终需求是虚拟水转移增加的主要因素，而 2002 年至 2012 年期间虚拟水流量的下降主要是由于用水效率的提高。设计情景的结果表明，区域间虚拟水流对水压力的负面影响可以得到有效缓解，这表明提高区域用水效率具有高度优先性，特别是在缺水地区。
