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过去半个世纪青藏高原干旱特征及其与海拔的关系。

Drought characteristics and its elevation dependence in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau during the last half-century.

机构信息

Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2020 Aug 31;10(1):14323. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-71295-1.

Abstract

Associated with global warming, drought has destructive influences on agriculture and ecosystems, especially in the fragile Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). This study investigated spatial-temporal patterns of meteorological drought in the QTP and its surrounding areas and made an attempt to explore the relationship between drought conditions and elevation. Robust monitoring data from 274 meteorological stations during 1970-2017 were analyzed using the Sen's slope method, Mann-Kendall trend test and rescaled range analysis. Results revealed that under the wetting trend in the QTP, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) increased of maximum 0.012/year in spring. Moreover, severe drought frequency in winter and future drought risk in summer also showed an increasing trend. Wetter trends were positively correlated with elevation, with a key point being 4,000 m where the change trend above 4,000 m was about 6.3 times of that below 4,000 m in study area. The difference of drought severities between SPEI in the QTP and its surrounding areas has increased from - 0.19 in 1970 to 0.38 in 2017 and kept growing in future.

摘要

与全球变暖相关,干旱对农业和生态系统有破坏性影响,特别是在脆弱的青藏高原(QTP)。本研究调查了青藏高原及其周边地区气象干旱的时空格局,并试图探索干旱条件与海拔之间的关系。使用 Sen 斜率法、Mann-Kendall 趋势检验和重标极差分析,对 1970-2017 年 274 个气象站的稳健监测数据进行了分析。结果表明,在青藏高原变湿的趋势下,春季标准降水蒸散指数(SPEI)增加了最大 0.012/年。此外,冬季严重干旱频率和夏季未来干旱风险也呈上升趋势。湿润趋势与海拔呈正相关,关键是在 4000 米处,海拔高于 4000 米的变化趋势是研究区海拔低于 4000 米的约 6.3 倍。青藏高原及其周边地区 SPEI 的干旱严重程度差异从 1970 年的-0.19 增加到 2017 年的 0.38,并在未来持续增长。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fc70/7459105/5f9b07490f11/41598_2020_71295_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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