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在共享社会经济途径下,青藏高原的增暖和增湿仍将持续。

Warming and Wetting will continue over the Tibetan Plateau in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

机构信息

School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, 519082, China.

Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Zhuhai, 519082, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 Aug 4;18(8):e0289589. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0289589. eCollection 2023.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0289589
PMID:37540690
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10403100/
Abstract

We have used bias-corrected data from CMIP6 models to drive a regional climate model and project climate on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in the 21st century. Changes in two background fields, namely, 2-meter air temperature and total precipitation, were analyzed. The results show that the WRF simulations capture the terrain effect that cannot be represented in low-resolution models. The simulation of temperature is better in summer than in winter, while the simulated precipitation is the opposite. By the end of the 21st century, the entire TP region experiences significant warming, with an average warming of 3°C and 7°C in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The western region shows a greater warming amplitude, with a maximum of more than 10°C in the SSP585 scenario. Most regions of the TP had significant increases in precipitation by the end of the 21st century, with precipitation increasing by 90 mm and 200 mm in the two scenarios, respectively. However, in the low-altitude areas of southeastern TP, total winter precipitation is significantly reduced in the SSP585 scenario. The strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon and westerly disturbances collectively leads to a significant increase in precipitation within the TP region. By the end of the 21st century, the average annual precipitation in the TP is projected to reach approximately 600 millimeters.

摘要

我们使用了来自 CMIP6 模型的经偏差校正的数据来驱动区域气候模型,并预测了 21 世纪青藏高原上的气候。分析了两个背景场的变化,即 2 米空气温度和总降水量。结果表明,WRF 模拟能够捕捉到低分辨率模型无法表示的地形效应。温度的模拟在夏季比冬季要好,而降水的模拟则相反。到 21 世纪末,整个青藏高原地区都经历了显著的变暖,在 SSP245 和 SSP585 情景下,平均升温分别为 3°C 和 7°C。西部地区的变暖幅度更大,在 SSP585 情景下最高可达 10°C 以上。到 21 世纪末,青藏高原的大部分地区降水都有显著增加,两个情景下的降水量分别增加了 90 毫米和 200 毫米。然而,在青藏高原东南部的低海拔地区,SSP585 情景下的冬季总降水量显著减少。东亚夏季风和西风扰动的加强导致了青藏高原地区降水的显著增加。到 21 世纪末,预计青藏高原地区的年平均降水量将达到约 600 毫米。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/c47cdba4a44f/pone.0289589.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/126d6952a1e5/pone.0289589.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/06a760232bc5/pone.0289589.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/e5da50817e46/pone.0289589.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/7cecef2dbd65/pone.0289589.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/177b68336719/pone.0289589.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/c1c44eb82332/pone.0289589.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/c47cdba4a44f/pone.0289589.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/126d6952a1e5/pone.0289589.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/06a760232bc5/pone.0289589.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/e5da50817e46/pone.0289589.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/7cecef2dbd65/pone.0289589.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/177b68336719/pone.0289589.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/c1c44eb82332/pone.0289589.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3ca/10403100/c47cdba4a44f/pone.0289589.g007.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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青藏高原上的气溶胶特征及其对天气和气候的影响。
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