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中国电力行业二氧化碳排放与相应驱动因素的脱钩分析。

Decoupling analysis between carbon dioxide emissions and the corresponding driving forces by Chinese power industry.

机构信息

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shanxi Datong University, Datong, 037009, China.

School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jan;28(2):2369-2378. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10666-7. Epub 2020 Sep 3.

Abstract

This study applied the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model to analyze changes in carbon dioxide emissions by Chinese power industry from 2003 to 2017. Besides, the Tapio decoupling analysis model is applied to explore the decoupling states between power industry carbon dioxide emissions and the corresponding influence factors. Several conclusions were obtained: (1) the power industry carbon dioxide emissions only displayed a slight downward trend during 2011-2012, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015; (2) the factors promoting the growth in power industry carbon dioxide emissions are energy consumption structure effect and total power generation effect. Power generation structural effect and fossil energy conversion efficiency effect inhibit the power industry carbon dioxide emissions from increasing, but they were far from offsetting the positive contribution value brought by total power generation effect; (3) changes in carbon dioxide emissions by the power industry were not sensitive to the change of fossil energy conversion efficiency and power production structure but were sensitive to the change of total power generation; (4) the contributions of technical effect were higher than those of structural effect on the decoupling index between impact factors and power industry carbon dioxide emissions.

摘要

本研究应用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)模型分析了 2003 年至 2017 年中国电力行业二氧化碳排放量的变化。此外,还应用 Tapio 脱钩分析模型探讨了电力行业二氧化碳排放与相应影响因素之间的脱钩状态。得出以下结论:(1)2011-2012 年、2013-2014 年和 2014-2015 年期间,电力行业二氧化碳排放量仅呈现出轻微的下降趋势;(2)促进电力行业二氧化碳排放增长的因素是能源消费结构效应和总发电量效应。发电结构效应和化石能源转换效率效应对抑制电力行业二氧化碳排放的增加起到了作用,但远未抵消总发电量效应带来的正贡献值;(3)电力行业二氧化碳排放量的变化对化石能源转换效率和电力生产结构的变化不敏感,但对总发电量的变化敏感;(4)在影响因素与电力行业二氧化碳排放之间的脱钩指数方面,技术效应的贡献高于结构效应。

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