Mathematics Department, Columbus State University, Columbus, GA, USA.
School of Mathematical College, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing, China.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2021 Mar;68(2):213-215. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13819. Epub 2020 Sep 17.
The raw case fatality rate (CFR, the reported number of COVID-19 deaths divided by the total number of cases) is an important indicator to quantify the severity or treatment efficacy. In many countries, the pandemic had experienced two waves to date. To our knowledge, no studies have compared the CFR between the two waves. In this work, we reported the CFR of 53 countries or regions with the highest COVID-19 death tolls. Of them, 43 had lower CFR estimates in the ongoing second wave than in the first wave. We discussed the possible reasons. Also, we compared the two-wave pattern of COVID-19 with those of influenza. Influenza activities in the pre-pandemic era provided an indicator for seasonality of climate in a country. The sharp drop in influenza activities in 2020 could an indicator of the effects of social distancing.
原始病例病死率（CFR，报告的 COVID-19 死亡人数与总病例数之比）是量化疾病严重程度或治疗效果的重要指标。迄今为止，许多国家的疫情已经经历了两波。据我们所知，尚无研究比较两波疫情的 CFR。在这项工作中，我们报告了 COVID-19 死亡人数最高的 53 个国家或地区的 CFR。其中，43 个国家或地区的第二波疫情 CFR 估计值低于第一波。我们讨论了可能的原因。此外，我们还比较了 COVID-19 与流感的两波模式。大流行前时代的流感活动为一个国家的气候季节性提供了指标。2020 年流感活动的急剧下降可能是社会隔离效果的一个指标。
