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监测多波奥密克戎变异株疫情的状况——71个国家，2021 - 2023年

Monitoring the Status of Multi-Wave Omicron Variant Outbreaks - 71 Countries, 2021-2023.

作者信息

Xu Chuanqing, Dai Lianjiao, Guo Songbai, Zhao Xiaoyu, Liu Xiaoling

机构信息

School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, China.

School of Mathematics, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China.

出版信息

China CDC Wkly. 2024 Oct 11;6(41):1054-1058. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2024.218.

DOI:10.46234/ccdcw2024.218
PMID:39502399
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11532532/
Abstract

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC?: Analyzing the characteristics of epidemic development after the emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 Omicron variants with its subvariants and the impact of income level inequalities on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case-fatality ratio helps to better understand the spread of novel coronavirus infections.

WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?: The median time interval between the first and second waves of Omicron sub-variants was 70 days (interquartile spacing: 43.75-91), and between the second and third waves was 87.5 days (interquartile spacing: 49-119), which obeyed a lognormal distribution. The case-fatality ratio of the first wave was significantly higher than that of the second and third waves. During the initial epidemic period, there was no significant geographic differences in the case-fatality ratio of the first wave, while the case-fatality ratio in countries with high income levels was significantly lower than in countries with other income levels.

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE?: We still need to pay attention to the COVID-19 pandemic, as inequalities in income levels have an impact on the case-fatality ratio during the early stages of Omicron epidemics. In most countries, strains of the virus are likely to move from low to high population prevalence after 2-4 months.

摘要

关于该主题已知的信息有哪些？：分析严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2奥密克戎变种及其亚变种出现后的疫情发展特征，以及收入水平不平等对2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病死率的影响，有助于更好地了解新型冠状病毒感染的传播情况。

本报告新增了哪些内容？：奥密克戎亚变种第一波和第二波之间的中位时间间隔为70天（四分位间距：43.75 - 91天），第二波和第三波之间为87.5天（四分位间距：49 - 119天），呈对数正态分布。第一波的病死率显著高于第二波和第三波。在疫情初期，第一波的病死率在地理上没有显著差异，而高收入水平国家的病死率显著低于其他收入水平的国家。

对公共卫生实践有哪些启示？：我们仍需关注COVID-19大流行，因为收入水平不平等在奥密克戎疫情早期阶段对病死率有影响。在大多数国家，病毒毒株可能在2 - 4个月后从低人群流行率转向高人群流行率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6616/11532532/cdbbadca0b02/ccdcw-6-41-1054-4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6616/11532532/f1c71be8a18b/ccdcw-6-41-1054-1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6616/11532532/3b80fa7ac23b/ccdcw-6-41-1054-2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6616/11532532/9afc28e4f09a/ccdcw-6-41-1054-3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6616/11532532/cdbbadca0b02/ccdcw-6-41-1054-4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6616/11532532/f1c71be8a18b/ccdcw-6-41-1054-1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6616/11532532/3b80fa7ac23b/ccdcw-6-41-1054-2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6616/11532532/9afc28e4f09a/ccdcw-6-41-1054-3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6616/11532532/cdbbadca0b02/ccdcw-6-41-1054-4.jpg

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