Zhu Bangzhu, Su Bin, Li Yingzhu, Ng Tsan Sheng
Business School, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China.
Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Energy Econ. 2020 Sep;91:104911. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104911. Epub 2020 Aug 29.
International trade has important impacts on a country's energy consumption. This paper first uses the time-series (2005-2015) extended input-output database to study China's embodied energy and intensity in both normal and processing exports. Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is then applied to analyze the driving forces behind the embodiment changes. The empirical results show that China's energy embodied in both normal and processing exports first increased in 2005-2008, dropped in 2009 due to the global financial crisis, and then rose again after 2009, and finally dropped in 2014-2015. The embodied energy in trade as a percentage of total energy consumption in China was relatively stable before and after the global financial crisis, at around 28% over the 2005-2008 period, and 22% over the 2009-2015 period. The contribution of the aggregate embodied intensity (AEI) of exports to China's aggregate energy intensity dropped from 30% in 2005 to 21% in 2015. Among China's trading partners, the United States, Japan and Korea together accounted for around half of China's embodied energy and AEI in exports in 2005, but their shares dropped to only one third in 2015. Energy efficiency improvement played the key role in reducing the embodied energy and intensity in China's exports. Similar analysis can be applied to other regions and indicators.
国际贸易对一个国家的能源消耗有着重要影响。本文首先使用时间序列（2005 - 2015年）扩展投入产出数据库来研究中国一般贸易出口和加工贸易出口中的隐含能源及强度。然后运用结构分解分析（SDA）来剖析隐含变化背后的驱动因素。实证结果表明，中国一般贸易出口和加工贸易出口中的隐含能源在2005 - 2008年期间先上升，2009年因全球金融危机而下降，2009年之后又再度上升，最终在2014 - 2015年下降。贸易中的隐含能源占中国能源消费总量的百分比在全球金融危机前后相对稳定，2005 - 2008年期间约为28%，2009 - 2015年期间为22%。出口的综合隐含强度（AEI）对中国综合能源强度的贡献从2005年的30%降至2015年的21%。在中国的贸易伙伴中，美国、日本和韩国在2005年合计占中国出口隐含能源和AEI的一半左右，但到2015年其份额仅降至三分之一。能源效率提升在中国出口隐含能源和强度的降低中发挥了关键作用。类似的分析也可应用于其他地区和指标。
