Liu Zhengyan, Mao Xianqiang, Song Peng
School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, P. R. China.
School of Public Affairs, Chongqing University, Chongqing, P. R. China.
PLoS One. 2017 Apr 25;12(4):e0176089. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0176089. eCollection 2017.
Temporal index decomposition analysis and spatial index decomposition analysis were applied to understand the driving forces of the emissions embodied in China's exports and net exports during 2002-2011, respectively. The accumulated emissions embodied in exports accounted for approximately 30% of the total emissions in China; although the contribution of the sectoral total emissions intensity (technique effect) declined, the scale effect was largely responsible for the mounting emissions associated with export, and the composition effect played a largely insignificant role. Calculations of the emissions embodied in net exports suggest that China is generally in an environmentally inferior position compared with its major trade partners. The differences in the economy-wide emission intensities between China and its major trade partners were the biggest contribution to this reality, and the trade balance effect played a less important role. However, a lower degree of specialization in pollution intensive products in exports than in imports helped to reduce slightly the emissions embodied in net exports. The temporal index decomposition analysis results suggest that China should take effective measures to optimize export and supply-side structure and reduce the total emissions intensity. According to spatial index decomposition analysis, it is suggested that a more aggressive import policy was useful for curbing domestic and global emissions, and the transfer of advanced production technologies and emission control technologies from developed to developing countries should be a compulsory global environmental policy option to mitigate the possible leakage of pollution emissions caused by international trade.
分别运用时间指数分解分析和空间指数分解分析,以了解2002 - 2011年期间中国出口和净出口中隐含排放的驱动因素。出口中隐含的累计排放量约占中国总排放量的30%;尽管部门总排放强度(技术效应)的贡献有所下降,但规模效应在很大程度上导致了与出口相关的排放量不断增加,而结构效应的作用在很大程度上微不足道。净出口中隐含排放的计算结果表明,与主要贸易伙伴相比,中国总体上处于环境劣势地位。中国与其主要贸易伙伴之间全经济范围排放强度的差异是造成这一现状的最大因素,贸易平衡效应的作用相对较小。然而,出口中污染密集型产品的专业化程度低于进口,这在一定程度上有助于略微减少净出口中隐含的排放量。时间指数分解分析结果表明,中国应采取有效措施优化出口和供给侧结构,降低总排放强度。根据空间指数分解分析,建议采取更积极的进口政策以抑制国内和全球排放,发达国家向发展中国家转让先进生产技术和排放控制技术应成为一项强制性的全球环境政策选择,以减轻国际贸易可能导致的污染排放泄漏。