Meng Ming, Zhou Jin
Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China.
Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, Changping, Beijing 102206, China.
Ecol Indic. 2020 Dec;119:106875. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106875. Epub 2020 Aug 28.
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is one of the important economic centers of China, but it suffers from severe air pollution. Based on the panel pollution-related data of 2013-2017, this research adopted a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) equation to fit the relationship between pollution emission level and its related socio-economic indicators. The pollution emission level of the BTH region was fitted and projected by using the entropy evaluation method to measure the emission levels, the partial least squares algorithm to estimate the STIRPAT equation parameters, and the hybrid trend extrapolation model to forecast the future development of the above socioeconomic indicators. Empirical analysis showed that the fitting curve to air pollution emission level reached the peak in 2015 and then decreased with a fluctuating and slow process. The air pollution emissions in 2025 will decrease to the level of 2007. With regard to the impacts on the change of the air emission pollution level, industrial waste gas emissions play a decisive role. The influence of soot (dust) emissions is considerably smaller but still larger than that of SO emissions. Besides, the slowing down of the economic development in the future will contribute to air quality improvement. However, the rapid growth of population in Hebei and Tianjin would hinder such improvement. Empirical analysis also implied that governments in this region should specially monitor the operation of building material industries to ensure the steady improvement of air quality.
京津冀地区是中国重要的经济中心之一，但面临严重的空气污染问题。基于2013 - 2017年与污染相关的面板数据，本研究采用随机人口、富裕及技术影响回归（STIRPAT）方程来拟合污染排放水平与其相关社会经济指标之间的关系。通过使用熵值评估法衡量排放水平、偏最小二乘算法估计STIRPAT方程参数以及混合趋势外推模型预测上述社会经济指标的未来发展，对京津冀地区的污染排放水平进行了拟合和预测。实证分析表明，空气污染排放水平的拟合曲线在2015年达到峰值，随后呈波动且缓慢下降的趋势。到2025年，空气污染排放量将降至2007年的水平。关于对空气排放污染水平变化的影响，工业废气排放起决定性作用。烟尘（粉尘）排放的影响相对较小，但仍大于二氧化硫排放的影响。此外，未来经济发展放缓将有助于空气质量改善。然而，河北和天津人口的快速增长将阻碍这一改善进程。实证分析还表明，该地区政府应特别监测建材行业的运营情况，以确保空气质量稳步改善。
