Harwood Stephen, Eaves Sally
The University of Edinburgh Business School, The University of Edinburgh, 29 Buccleuch Place, Edinburgh EH8 9JS, United Kingdom.
Forbes Technology Council, Boston, Massachusetts, United States.
Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2020 Nov;160:120174. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120174. Epub 2020 Aug 30.
One approach to developing futuristic views of technology is to draw upon experience and expertise. However, this becomes increasingly speculative as one moves to more distant timelines and visionary technological forms. This raises the question of whether it is possible to rationally predict how a technology development trajectory might unfold into the future, perhaps to some 'ultimate form', that is accessible, surfaces the necessary technological features for development as well as considers the implications for human-artefact relationships. The proposed approach is conceptually grounded in a parsimonious framework that examines different configurations of human-artefact relationships, revealing 'Six Genres of Technology'. This suggests how the shift from human-human to artefact-artefact and the increasing autonomy of the artefacts (technological beings), introduces specific features to each of the six Genres. Four features are identified in the later Genres that in combination, could be construed as, or indeed pose a threat: autonomy, intelligence, language, and autopoiesis. This paper advances the debate about future technological developments by using the proposed framework to structure an argument about the key issues that should be discussed today - so that the developments of tomorrow can be more reflectively considered, appropriately debated and knowingly pursued.
一种构建未来技术观的方法是借鉴经验和专业知识。然而,随着人们展望更遥远的时间线和更具前瞻性的技术形式,这种方法的推测性也越来越强。这就引发了一个问题:是否有可能合理预测一项技术的发展轨迹将如何在未来展开,或许发展到某种“终极形式”,这种形式是可实现的,揭示了发展所需的技术特征,并考虑了对人类与人工制品关系的影响。所提出的方法在概念上基于一个简约的框架,该框架审视人类与人工制品关系的不同配置,揭示出“六种技术类型”。这表明从人与人的关系向人工制品与人工制品的关系转变以及人工制品(技术实体)日益增强的自主性,给这六种技术类型中的每一种都带来了特定特征。在后期的技术类型中确定了四个特征,这些特征综合起来,可能被视为一种威胁,或者确实构成一种威胁:自主性、智能、语言和自创生。本文通过使用所提出的框架来构建一个关于当今应讨论的关键问题的论点,推进了关于未来技术发展的辩论,以便能更审慎地思考、适当地辩论并明智地追求未来的发展。