Mortality in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, 2020-2023: higher excess mortality during an influenza wave in 2022 than during all COVID-19 waves altogether.

INTRODUCTION

Mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was studied in many countries. The results were strongly influenced by the chosen calculation method, the adjustment to the ageing of the population and the reference periods used. Smaller-scale studies sometimes showed considerable differences within countries, but it is unclear whether the differences within a country were due to the fact that the studies were small (sampling error) or whether they were true differences. In an earlier small-scale study in Frankfurt, we examined mortality during the first two years of the pandemic. Our aim was to continue this analysis until the end of 2023, for the first time taking into account other factors influencing mortality such as influenza and heat.

METHOD

We obtained population data for Frankfurt am Main for 2016-2023 from the Municipal Office of Statistics, City of Frankfurt/Main, mortality data from 2016 to 2023 from the Hessian State Office for Health and Care, data on SARS-CoV-2 and influenza notifications from the homepage of the Robert Koch-Institute and weather data from the homepage of the German Meteorological Office. For calculating standardized mortality ratios (SMR= observed number of deaths divided by the expected number of deaths), we multiplied the mean mortality rate for 5 age groups from 2016-2019 with the total numer of residents in those age groups in the further years or periods, and finally added the numbers of expected deaths per age group.

RESULTS

The update of the assessment of mortality adjusted for age and population trend in the years 2020-2023 in Frankfurt am Main shows an excess mortality (SMR 1.029; 95% CI 1.004-1.054, +185 excess deaths) in 2022, followed by a negative excess mortality in 2023 (SMR 0.972; 95% CI 0.948-0.996). In the years 2020 and 2021 however, no increase in excess mortality had been found (2020: SMR 0.976; 95% CI 0.951-1.001; 2021: 0.998; 95% CI 0,973-1.023). In the second wave of the SARS CoV-2 pandemic with the Wuhan type (fall 2020), a significantly increased mortality was found (SMR 1.106; 95% CI 1.066-1.147, +274 deaths), as well as during the first four waves overall (Wuhan, Alpha and Delta type) (SMR 1.023; 95 CI 1.001-1.045), whereas no increased mortality occurred during the further waves with the Omikron variant in 2022 (SMR 0.988; 95% CI 0.963-1.014). The increased mortality in 2022 was associated with an influenza wave in the last 6 weeks of the year, which had led to a strong increase in mortality (SMR 1.250; 95% CI 1.170-1.330).

DISCUSSION

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, significant excess mortality occurred in Frankfurt am Main only in the second wave at the end of 2020 before vaccination was introduced; in all other waves, no significant excess mortality was recorded. Overall, there was a non-significant negative excess mortality in Frankfurt am Main in 2020 and 2021 and a significant negative excess mortality in 2023. In 2022, however, a significant excess mortality was observed, which could not be attributed to SARS-CoV-2 but to a short, intense wave of influenza in the last 6 weeks at the end of that year, which had also led to a significant increase in mortality throughout Germany. This influenza wave was associated with an excess mortality rate in Frankfurt am Main, which was higher than in any wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Frankfurt am Main. The number of excess deaths during that influenza waves was larger than the excess deaths during all SARS-CoV-2 waves altogether. This remarkable fact should be taken into account when dealing with the evaluation of the pandemic, a process which is increasingly beeing called for in many ways in Germany but is still pending.