Dzwonkowski B, Coogan J, Fournier S, Lockridge G, Park K, Lee T
University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL, 36688, USA.
Dauphin Island Sea Lab, Dauphin Island, AL, 36528, USA.
Nat Commun. 2020 Sep 22;11(1):4623. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18339-2.
Exposure to extreme events is a major concern in coastal regions where growing human populations and stressed natural ecosystems are at significant risk to such phenomena. However, the complex sequence of processes that transform an event from notable to extreme can be challenging to identify and hence, limit forecast abilities. Here, we show an extreme heat content event (i.e., a marine heatwave) in coastal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico resulted from compounding effects of a tropical storm followed by an atmospheric heatwave. This newly identified process of generating extreme ocean temperatures occurred prior to landfall of Hurricane Michael during October of 2018 and, as critical contributor to storm intensity, likely contributed to the subsequent extreme hurricane. This pattern of compounding processes will also exacerbate other environmental problems in temperature-sensitive ecosystems (e.g., coral bleaching, hypoxia) and is expected to have expanding impacts under global warming predictions.
在沿海地区，极端事件的影响是一个主要问题，因为不断增长的人口和受到压力的自然生态系统面临着此类现象带来的重大风险。然而，将一个事件从显著转变为极端的复杂过程序列可能难以识别，从而限制了预测能力。在此，我们表明，墨西哥湾北部沿海水域的一次极端热含量事件（即海洋热浪）是由热带风暴随后是大气热浪的复合效应导致的。这种新发现的产生极端海洋温度的过程发生在2018年10月迈克尔飓风登陆之前，并且作为风暴强度的关键促成因素，可能导致了随后的极端飓风。这种复合过程模式还将加剧对温度敏感的生态系统中的其他环境问题（如珊瑚白化、缺氧），并且预计在全球变暖预测下会产生不断扩大的影响。
