Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, 1730 Minor Ave Suite 1600, Seattle, WA, USA.
Microbes Infect. 2020 Nov-Dec;22(10):611-616. doi: 10.1016/j.micinf.2020.09.006. Epub 2020 Sep 22.
Many jurisdictions implemented intensive social distancing to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The challenge now is to mitigate the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic without overburdening economic and social activities. An agent-based model simulated the population of King County, Washington. SARS-CoV-2 transmission probabilities were estimated by fitting simulated to observed hospital admissions. Interventions considered included encouraging telecommuting, reducing contacts to high-risk persons, and reductions to contacts outside of the home, among others. Removing all existing interventions would result in nearly 42,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations between June 2020 and January 2021, with peak hospital occupancy exceeding available beds 6-fold. Combining interventions is predicted to reduce total hospitalizations by 48% (95% CI, 47-49%), with peak COVID-19 hospital occupancy of 70% of total beds. Targeted school closures can further reduce the peak occupancy. Combining low-impact interventions may mitigate the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, keeping hospital burden within the capacity of the healthcare system.
许多司法管辖区实施了严格的社交距离措施，以抑制 SARS-CoV-2 的传播。现在的挑战是在不使经济和社会活动负担过重的情况下，减轻正在发生的 COVID-19 疫情。基于代理的模型模拟了华盛顿州金县的人口。通过将模拟数据与实际住院数据进行拟合，估计了 SARS-CoV-2 的传播概率。所考虑的干预措施包括鼓励远程办公、减少与高风险人群的接触以及减少家庭以外的接触等。取消所有现有的干预措施，将导致 2020 年 6 月至 2021 年 1 月期间近 42000 例 COVID-19 住院治疗，医院入住率峰值超过可用床位的 6 倍。预测组合干预措施可将总住院人数减少 48%（95%CI，47-49%），COVID-19 医院入住率峰值为总床位的 70%。有针对性的学校关闭可以进一步降低峰值入住率。低影响干预措施的结合可能会减轻 COVID-19 疫情的进程，使医院负担保持在医疗系统的承受能力之内。
