Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
Sci Adv. 2020 Dec 4;6(49). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abd6370. Print 2020 Dec.
Assessing the effects of early nonpharmaceutical interventions on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the pandemic. We use observations of reported infections and deaths, human mobility data, and a metapopulation transmission model to quantify changes in disease transmission rates in U.S. counties from 15 March to 3 May 2020. We find that marked, asynchronous reductions of the basic reproductive number occurred throughout the United States in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same measures been implemented 1 to 2 weeks earlier, substantial cases and deaths could have been averted and that delayed responses to future increased incidence will facilitate a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive control in combatting the COVID-19 pandemic.
评估 2019 冠状病毒病(COVID-19)早期非药物干预措施对疾病传播的影响,对于了解和规划未来的大流行控制措施至关重要。我们利用报告的感染和死亡病例、人口流动数据以及一个元种群传播模型,来量化 2020 年 3 月 15 日至 5 月 3 日美国各县的疾病传播率变化。我们发现,在美国各地,与社交隔离和其他控制措施相关的基本繁殖数都出现了显著的、不同步的降低。反事实模拟表明,如果这些相同的措施能早实施 1 到 2 周,就可以避免大量的病例和死亡,而且对未来发病率增加的反应迟缓,将使感染和死亡人数出现更强的反弹。我们的研究结果强调了早期干预和积极控制在抗击 COVID-19 大流行中的重要性。