School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China.
School of Sciences, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, 710048, China.
Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Mar 26;17(4):2853-2861. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020159.
In this work, we use a within-host viral dynamic model to describe the SARS-CoV-2 kinetics in the host. Chest radiograph score data are used to estimate the parameters of that model. Our result shows that the basic reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2 in host growth is around 3.79. Using the same method we also estimate the basic reproductive number of MERS virus is 8.16 which is higher than SARS-CoV-2. The PRCC method is used to analyze the sensitivities of model parameters. Moreover, the drug effects on virus growth and immunity effect of patients are also implemented to analyze the model.
在这项工作中，我们使用一个宿主内病毒动力学模型来描述 SARS-CoV-2 在宿主中的动力学。胸部放射评分数据用于估计该模型的参数。我们的结果表明，SARS-CoV-2 在宿主生长中的基本繁殖数约为 3.79。使用相同的方法，我们还估计了 MERS 病毒的基本繁殖数为 8.16，高于 SARS-CoV-2。我们使用 PRCC 方法来分析模型参数的敏感性。此外，还实施了药物对病毒生长的影响和患者的免疫效应来分析该模型。
