Thompson James A
College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-4475, USA.
BMC Pediatr. 2020 Sep 28;20(1):453. doi: 10.1186/s12887-020-02341-0.
The biologic implications of delayed parenthood have been blamed for a major public health crisis in the United States, that includes high rates of neonatal morbidity and mortality (NMM). The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of parent age on NMM and to provide results that can serve as a starting point for more specific mediation modeling.
Data containing approximately 15,000,000 birth records were obtained from the United States Natality database for the years 2014 to 2018. A Bayesian modeling approach was used to estimate the both the total effect and the risk adjusted for confounding between parent ages and for mediation by chromosomal disorders including Down syndrome. Outcomes included intra-hospital death and nine measures of neonatal morbidity.
For paternal age, seven NMM (preterm birth, very preterm birth, low Apgar score, treatment with antibiotics, treatment with surfactant, prolonged ventilation, intra-hospital death) had U-shaped risk patterns, two NMM (small for gestational age, admission to neonatal intensive care) had J-shaped risk patterns, one NMM (seizures) was not significantly related to paternal age. For maternal age, three NMM (low Apgar score, treatment with antibiotics and intra-hospital death) had U-shaped risk patterns, four NMM (preterm delivery, very preterm delivery, admission to neonatal intensive care, treatment with surfactant) had J-shaped risk patterns, one NMM (small for gestational age) had a risk declining with age, one NMM (prolonged ventilation) had a risk increasing with age and one NMM (seizures) was not significantly related to maternal age.
Both advancing maternal and paternal ages had U- or J-shaped risk patterns for neonatal morbidity and mortality.
晚育的生物学影响被认为是美国一场重大公共卫生危机的罪魁祸首,这场危机包括高新生儿发病率和死亡率(NMM)。本研究的目的是评估父母年龄对NMM的风险,并提供可作为更具体中介模型起点的结果。
从美国2014年至2018年出生数据库中获取了包含约1500万条出生记录的数据。采用贝叶斯建模方法来估计父母年龄之间混杂因素调整后的总效应和风险,以及包括唐氏综合征在内的染色体疾病的中介效应。结果包括院内死亡和九种新生儿发病率指标。
对于父亲年龄,七种NMM(早产、极早产、阿氏评分低、使用抗生素治疗、使用表面活性剂治疗、通气时间延长、院内死亡)呈现U型风险模式,两种NMM(小于胎龄儿、入住新生儿重症监护病房)呈现J型风险模式,一种NMM(癫痫发作)与父亲年龄无显著相关性。对于母亲年龄,三种NMM(阿氏评分低、使用抗生素治疗和院内死亡)呈现U型风险模式,四种NMM(早产、极早产、入住新生儿重症监护病房、使用表面活性剂治疗)呈现J型风险模式,一种NMM(小于胎龄儿)风险随年龄下降,一种NMM(通气时间延长)风险随年龄增加,一种NMM(癫痫发作)与母亲年龄无显著相关性。
母亲和父亲年龄的增长对新生儿发病率和死亡率均呈现U型或J型风险模式。