CEMADEN, São Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil.
GCU/IPL, Univerdity of Valencia, C/Catedratico Jose Beltran, 46980, Paterna, Valencia, Spain.
Sci Rep. 2022 Jan 10;12(1):457. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-04241-4.
Several large-scale drivers of both anthropogenic and natural environmental changes are interacting nonlinearly in the transition zone between eastern Amazonia and the adjacent Cerrado, considered to be another Brazilian agricultural frontier. Land-use change for agrobusiness expansion together with climate change in the transition zone between eastern Amazonia and the adjacent Cerrado may have induced a worsening of severe drought conditions over the last decade. Here we show that the largest warming and drying trends over tropical South America during the last four decades are observed to be precisely in the eastern Amazonia-Cerrado transition region, where they induce delayed wet-season and worsen severe drought conditions over the last decade. Our results evidence an increase in temperature, vapor pressure deficit, subsidence, dry-day frequency, and a decrease in precipitation, humidity, and evaporation, plus a delay in the onset of the wet season, inducing a higher risk of fire during the dry-to-wet transition season. These findings provide observational evidence of the increasing climatic pressure in this area, which is sensitive for global food security, and the need to reconcile agricultural expansion and protection of natural tropical biomes.
几个大型的人为和自然环境变化驱动因素正在亚马逊东部和相邻的塞拉多之间的过渡区相互非线性地作用，这个过渡区被认为是巴西的另一个农业前沿地带。为了农业综合企业的扩张而改变土地用途，加上亚马逊东部和相邻的塞拉多之间过渡区的气候变化，可能导致过去十年严重干旱状况恶化。在这里，我们表明，在过去四十年中，南美洲热带地区最大的变暖与变干趋势正是在亚马逊东部-塞拉多过渡区观察到的，这导致过去十年雨季延迟和严重干旱状况恶化。我们的研究结果表明，温度、水汽压亏缺、下沉、干燥日频率增加，降水、湿度和蒸发减少，雨季开始延迟，在干湿过渡季节增加了火灾的风险。这些发现为该地区不断增加的气候压力提供了观测证据，该地区对全球粮食安全至关重要，需要协调农业扩张和保护自然热带生物群落。
