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新冠疫情波峰叠加,预计将持续一段时间,未来仍需警惕。

Superposition of COVID-19 waves, anticipating a sustained wave, and lessons for the future.

机构信息

Science, Mathematics and Technology, Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), Singapore, Singapore.

SUTD-Massachusetts Institute of Technology International Design Centre, Singapore, Singapore.

出版信息

Bioessays. 2020 Dec;42(12):e2000178. doi: 10.1002/bies.202000178. Epub 2020 Nov 16.

DOI:10.1002/bies.202000178
PMID:33040355
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7675615/
Abstract

The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19), also known as SARS-CoV-2, is highly pathogenic and virulent, and it spreads very quickly through human-to-human contact. In response to the growing number of cases, governments across the spectrum of affected countries have adopted different strategies in implementing control measures, in a hope to reduce the number of new cases. However, 5 months after the first confirmed case, countries like the United States of America (US) seems to be heading towards a trajectory that indicates a health care crisis. This is in stark contrast to the downward trajectory in Europe, China, and elsewhere in Asia, where the number of new cases has seen a decline ahead of an anticipated second wave. A data-driven approach reveals three key strategies in tackling COVID-19. Our work here has definitively evaluated these strategies and serves as a warning to the US, and more importantly, a guide for tackling future pandemics. Also see the video abstract here https://youtu.be/gPkCi2_7tWo.

摘要

2019 年冠状病毒(COVID-19),也称为 SARS-CoV-2,具有很高的致病性和毒力,并且通过人与人之间的接触迅速传播。针对病例不断增加的情况,受影响国家的各级政府在实施控制措施方面采取了不同的策略,希望减少新病例的数量。然而,在首例确诊病例发生 5 个月后,美国等国家似乎正朝着表明医疗保健危机的轨迹发展。这与欧洲、中国和亚洲其他地区的下降轨迹形成鲜明对比,在预期的第二波疫情之前,这些地区的新病例数量有所下降。数据驱动的方法揭示了应对 COVID-19 的三个关键策略。我们在这里的工作明确评估了这些策略,并为美国敲响了警钟,更重要的是,为应对未来的大流行提供了指导。也可在此处查看视频摘要:https://youtu.be/gPkCi2_7tWo。

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