De Cos Guerra Olga, Castillo Salcines Valentín, Cantarero Prieto David
Department of Geography, Urban and Regional Planning Universidad de Cantabria Santander Spain.
Research Group on Health Economics and Health Services Management-Marqués de Valdecilla Research Institute (IDIVAL) Santander Spain.
Trans GIS. 2022 Jun;26(4):1981-2003. doi: 10.1111/tgis.12919. Epub 2022 Mar 31.
This research approaches the empirical study of the pandemic from a social science perspective. The main goal is to reveal spatiotemporal changes in Covid-19, at regional scale, using GIS technologies and the emerging three-dimensional bins method. We analyze a case study of the region of Cantabria (northern Spain) based on 29,288 geocoded positive Covid-19 cases in the four waves from the outset in March 2020 to June 2021. Our results suggest three main spatial processes: a reversal in the spatial trend, spreading first followed by contraction in the third and fourth waves; then the reduction of hot spots that represent problematic areas because of high presence of cases and growing trends; and finally, an increase in cold spots. All this generates relevant knowledge to help policy-makers from regional governments to design efficient containment and mitigation strategies. Our research is conducted from a geoprevention perspective, based on the application of targeted measures depending on spatial patterns of Covid-19 in real time. It represents an opportunity to reduce the socioeconomic impact of global containment measures in pandemic management.
本研究从社会科学视角对这一疫情大流行开展实证研究。主要目标是利用地理信息系统（GIS）技术和新兴的三维分箱法，揭示区域尺度上新冠疫情的时空变化。我们基于2020年3月至2021年6月四波疫情期间坎塔布里亚地区（西班牙北部）29288个地理编码的新冠确诊病例，对该地区进行了案例研究。我们的研究结果表明存在三个主要空间过程：空间趋势的逆转，即第一波疫情扩散，第三波和第四波疫情先扩散后收缩；其次是热点区域减少，这些热点区域因病例数众多和增长趋势而成为问题区域；最后是冷点区域增加。所有这些都产生了相关知识，有助于地区政府的政策制定者设计有效的防控和缓解策略。我们的研究是从地缘预防角度进行的，基于根据新冠疫情实时空间模式应用针对性措施。这是一个减少全球防控措施在疫情管理中社会经济影响的契机。
