Shinde Gitanjali R, Kalamkar Asmita B, Mahalle Parikshit N, Dey Nilanjan, Chaki Jyotismita, Hassanien Aboul Ella
Department of Computer Engineering, Smt. Kashibai Navale College of Engineering, Pune, Maharashtra India.
Department of Communication, Media and Information Technologies, Aalborg University, Copenhagen, Denmark.
SN Comput Sci. 2020;1(4):197. doi: 10.1007/s42979-020-00209-9. Epub 2020 Jun 11.
COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected over 170 countries around the world. The number of infected and deceased patients has been increasing at an alarming rate in almost all the affected nations. Forecasting techniques can be inculcated thereby assisting in designing better strategies and in taking productive decisions. These techniques assess the situations of the past thereby enabling better predictions about the situation to occur in the future. These predictions might help to prepare against possible threats and consequences. Forecasting techniques play a very important role in yielding accurate predictions. This study categorizes forecasting techniques into two types, namely, stochastic theory mathematical models and data science/machine learning techniques. Data collected from various platforms also play a vital role in forecasting. In this study, two categories of datasets have been discussed, i.e., big data accessed from World Health Organization/National databases and data from a social media communication. Forecasting of a pandemic can be done based on various parameters such as the impact of environmental factors, incubation period, the impact of quarantine, age, gender and many more. These techniques and parameters used for forecasting are extensively studied in this work. However, forecasting techniques come with their own set of challenges (technical and generic). This study discusses these challenges and also provides a set of recommendations for the people who are currently fighting the global COVID-19 pandemic.
新冠疫情是一场全球大流行疾病,已影响到全球170多个国家。在几乎所有受影响国家,感染和死亡患者数量一直在以惊人的速度增长。可以运用预测技术,从而有助于制定更好的策略并做出有效的决策。这些技术评估过去的情况,从而能够对未来可能出现的情况做出更好的预测。这些预测可能有助于防范可能的威胁和后果。预测技术在得出准确预测方面发挥着非常重要的作用。本研究将预测技术分为两类,即随机理论数学模型和数据科学/机器学习技术。从各种平台收集的数据在预测中也起着至关重要的作用。在本研究中,讨论了两类数据集,即从世界卫生组织/国家数据库获取的大数据和来自社交媒体通信的数据。可以基于各种参数进行大流行预测,如环境因素的影响、潜伏期、隔离的影响、年龄、性别等等。本工作对用于预测的这些技术和参数进行了广泛研究。然而,预测技术也面临着自身的一系列挑战(技术和一般方面的)。本研究讨论了这些挑战,并为当前抗击全球新冠疫情的人们提供了一系列建议。