Apenteng Ofosuhene O, Osei Prince P, Oduro Bismark, Kwabla Mavis Pearl, Ismail Noor Azina
Division for Global Surveillance, Research Group for Genomic Epidemiology, National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.
Department of Statistics, University of Haifa, Mount Carmel, Haifa, 31905, Israel.
Infect Dis Model. 2020 Sep 30;5:755-765. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.09.009. eCollection 2020.
Malaysia is faced with a high HIV/AIDS burden that poses a public health threat. We constructed and applied a compartmental model to understand the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in Malaysia. A simple model for HIV and AIDS disease that incorporates condom and uncontaminated needle-syringes interventions and addresses the relative impact of given treatment therapy for infected HIV newborns on reducing HIV and AIDS incidence is presented. We demonstrated how treatment therapy for new-born babies and the use of condoms or uncontaminated needle-syringes impact the dynamics of HIV in Malaysia. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia from 1986 to 2011. The epidemiological parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The reproduction number optimal for control of the HIV/AIDS disease obtained suggests that the disease-free equilibrium was unstable during the 25 years. However, the results indicated that the use of condoms and uncontaminated needle-syringes are pivotal intervention control strategies; a comprehensive adoption of the intervention may help stop the spread of HIV disease. Treatment therapy for newborn babies is also of high value; it reduces the epidemic peak. The combined effect of condom use or uncontaminated needle-syringe is more pronounced in controlling the spread of HIV/AIDS.
马来西亚面临着严重的艾滋病毒/艾滋病负担，这构成了公共卫生威胁。我们构建并应用了一个 compartments 模型来了解艾滋病毒/艾滋病在马来西亚的传播和控制情况。提出了一个简单的艾滋病毒和艾滋病疾病模型，该模型纳入了避孕套和未受污染的针头注射器干预措施，并探讨了针对感染艾滋病毒的新生儿的特定治疗疗法对降低艾滋病毒和艾滋病发病率的相对影响。我们展示了针对新生儿的治疗疗法以及避孕套或未受污染的针头注射器的使用如何影响马来西亚艾滋病毒的动态变化。该模型根据1986年至2011年马来西亚的艾滋病毒和艾滋病发病率数据进行了校准。通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟方法使用贝叶斯推理估计流行病学参数。获得的用于控制艾滋病毒/艾滋病疾病的繁殖数表明，在这25年中无病平衡点是不稳定的。然而，结果表明，使用避孕套和未受污染的针头注射器是关键的干预控制策略；全面采用这些干预措施可能有助于阻止艾滋病毒疾病的传播。针对新生儿的治疗疗法也具有很高的价值；它降低了疫情高峰。使用避孕套或未受污染的针头注射器的综合效果在控制艾滋病毒/艾滋病传播方面更为显著。
