Wang Xianghui, Chen Chang, Du Yan, Zhang Yang, Wu Chengliang
School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.
Healthcare (Basel). 2021 Jan 22;9(2):116. doi: 10.3390/healthcare9020116.
It has been a year since the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic 2019 (COVID-19). In the face of the global epidemic, governments in all countries have taken different prevention measures, such as social isolation, mandatory health protection, and the closure of schools and workplaces. The situation of the epidemic has clearly varied from country to country. In this context, research on the impact of policies for the control of the spread of the global epidemic is of great significance. In this paper, we examined data from a sample of 212 countries between 31 December 2019, and 21 May 2020, using multi-fuzzy regression discontinuity. We found that developed countries had relatively low sensitivity to the policy stringency index; however, policy control measures had a significant effect on epidemic control. In addition, the trend analysis showed that the corresponding management and control came into play only after the policy stringency index reached 50 or the policy management reached level II, and the robustness was optimal at this time. Therefore, the governments in all countries should realize that epidemic prevention and control are of great importance. They can strengthen policy stringency to control the spread of the epidemic, considering their national conditions in terms of the economy and health system.
自2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情爆发以来已过去一年。面对全球疫情，各国政府采取了不同的预防措施，如社会隔离、强制健康保护以及关闭学校和工作场所。疫情形势在各国明显不同。在此背景下，研究控制全球疫情传播政策的影响具有重要意义。在本文中，我们使用多模糊回归断点法，研究了2019年12月31日至2020年5月21日期间212个国家的样本数据。我们发现，发达国家对政策严格指数的敏感度相对较低；然而，政策控制措施对疫情防控有显著效果。此外，趋势分析表明，相应的管控措施只有在政策严格指数达到50或政策管控达到二级时才会发挥作用，此时稳健性最佳。因此，各国政府应认识到疫情防控至关重要。它们可以根据本国的经济和卫生系统国情，加强政策严格程度以控制疫情传播。
