Bitsouni Vasiliki, Gialelis Nikolaos, Tsilidis Vasilis
Department of Mathematics, University of Patras, GR-26504, Rio Patras, Greece.
Department of Mathematics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, GR-15784, Athens, Greece.
Infect Dis Model. 2024 Jul 20;9(4):1301-1328. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.07.002. eCollection 2024 Dec.
During an epidemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, policy-makers are faced with the decision of implementing effective, yet socioeconomically costly intervention strategies, such as school and workplace closure, physical distancing, etc. In this study, we propose a rigorous definition of epidemiological strategies. In addition, we develop a scheme for comparing certain epidemiological strategies, with the goal of providing policy-makers with a tool for their systematic comparison. Then, we put the suggested scheme to the test by employing an age-based epidemiological compartment model introduced in Bitsouni et al. (2024), coupled with data from the literature, in order to compare the effectiveness of age-based and horizontal interventions. In general, our findings suggest that these two are comparable, mainly at a low or medium level of intensity.
在疫情期间,比如新冠疫情大流行期间,政策制定者面临着实施有效但社会经济成本高昂的干预策略的决策,如学校和工作场所关闭、保持社交距离等。在本研究中,我们提出了流行病学策略的严格定义。此外,我们开发了一种比较某些流行病学策略的方案,目的是为政策制定者提供一个进行系统比较的工具。然后,我们通过采用比佐尼等人(2024年)引入的基于年龄的流行病学隔间模型,并结合文献数据,对所建议的方案进行测试,以比较基于年龄的干预措施和横向干预措施的有效性。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,这两者具有可比性,主要是在低强度或中等强度水平上。