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一种用于比较将基于年龄的限制措施与全面封锁应用于流行病学策略的新型框架。

A novel comparison framework for epidemiological strategies applied to age-based restrictions versus horizontal lockdowns.

作者信息

Bitsouni Vasiliki, Gialelis Nikolaos, Tsilidis Vasilis

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, University of Patras, GR-26504, Rio Patras, Greece.

Department of Mathematics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, GR-15784, Athens, Greece.

出版信息

Infect Dis Model. 2024 Jul 20;9(4):1301-1328. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.07.002. eCollection 2024 Dec.

Abstract

During an epidemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, policy-makers are faced with the decision of implementing effective, yet socioeconomically costly intervention strategies, such as school and workplace closure, physical distancing, etc. In this study, we propose a rigorous definition of epidemiological strategies. In addition, we develop a scheme for comparing certain epidemiological strategies, with the goal of providing policy-makers with a tool for their systematic comparison. Then, we put the suggested scheme to the test by employing an age-based epidemiological compartment model introduced in Bitsouni et al. (2024), coupled with data from the literature, in order to compare the effectiveness of age-based and horizontal interventions. In general, our findings suggest that these two are comparable, mainly at a low or medium level of intensity.

摘要

在疫情期间,比如新冠疫情大流行期间,政策制定者面临着实施有效但社会经济成本高昂的干预策略的决策,如学校和工作场所关闭、保持社交距离等。在本研究中,我们提出了流行病学策略的严格定义。此外,我们开发了一种比较某些流行病学策略的方案,目的是为政策制定者提供一个进行系统比较的工具。然后,我们通过采用比佐尼等人(2024年)引入的基于年龄的流行病学隔间模型,并结合文献数据,对所建议的方案进行测试,以比较基于年龄的干预措施和横向干预措施的有效性。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,这两者具有可比性,主要是在低强度或中等强度水平上。

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