Ghosh Mousam, Ghosh Swarnankur, Ghosh Suman, Panda Goutam Kumar, Saha Pradip Kumar
Department of Electrical Engineering, Ramkrishna Mahato Government Engineering College Purulia (Formerly Purulia Government Engineering College), Purulia, West Bengal, India.
Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology Meghalaya, Shillong, Meghalaya, India.
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2021 Jan;142:110377. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110377. Epub 2020 Oct 19.
Most of the widely populated countries across the globe have been observing vicious spread and detrimental effects of pandemic COVID-19 since its inception on December 19. Therefore to restrict the spreading of pandemic COVID-19, various researches are going on in both medical and administrative sectors. The focus has been given in this research keeping an administrative point of view in mind. In this paper a dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra and inter zone mobilization factors with rate of detection has been proposed. Few factors related to intra zone mobilization; inter zone mobilization and rate of detection are the key points in the proposed model. Various remedial steps are taken into consideration in the form of operating procedures. Further such operating procedures are applied over the model in standalone or hybridized mode and responses are reported in this paper in a case-studies manner. Further zone-wise increase in infected population due to the spreading of pandemic COVID-19 has been studied and reported in this paper. Also the proposed model has been applied over the real world data considering three states of India and the predicted responses are compared with real data and reported with bar chart representation in this paper.
自12月19日新冠疫情爆发以来，全球大多数人口众多的国家都在目睹其恶性传播和有害影响。因此，为了限制新冠疫情的传播，医疗和行政部门都在进行各种研究。本研究从行政角度出发，予以关注。本文提出了一个考虑区域内和区域间流动因素以及检测率的新冠疫情传播感染人群动态模型。与区域内流动、区域间流动和检测率相关的几个因素是该模型的关键点。以操作程序的形式考虑了各种补救措施。进一步将此类操作程序以独立或混合模式应用于该模型，并以案例研究的方式在本文中报告了响应情况。此外，本文还研究并报告了因新冠疫情传播导致的各区域感染人群的进一步增加情况。本模型还应用于印度三个邦的实际数据，将预测响应与实际数据进行比较，并以柱状图形式在本文中报告。
