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利用印度疾病传播数据驱动的流行病学参数对 COVID-19 流行模型进行数学分析

Mathematical Analysis of a COVID-19 Epidemic Model by Using Data Driven Epidemiological Parameters of Diseases Spread in India.

作者信息

Pal D, Ghosh D, Santra P K, Mahapatra G S

机构信息

Chandrahati Dilip Kumar High School, 712504 Chandrahati, West Bengal India.

Department of Mathematics, National Institute of Technology Puducherry, 609609 Karaikal, India.

出版信息

Biophysics (Oxf). 2022;67(2):231-244. doi: 10.1134/S0006350922020154. Epub 2022 Jun 29.

DOI:10.1134/S0006350922020154
PMID:35789554
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9244063/
Abstract

This paper attempts to describe the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (COVID-19) via an epidemic model. This virus has dissimilar effects in different countries. The number of new active coronavirus cases is increasing gradually across the globe. India is now in the second stage of COVID-19 spreading, it will be an epidemic very quickly if proper protection is not undertaken based on the database of the transmission of the disease. This paper is using the current data of COVID-19 for the mathematical modeling and its dynamical analysis. We bring in a new representation to appraise and manage the outbreak of infectious disease COVID-19 through SEQIR pandemic model, which is based on the supposition that the infected but undetected by testing individuals are send to quarantine during the incubation period. During the incubation period if any individual be infected by COVID-19, then that confirmed infected individuals are isolated and the necessary treatments are arranged so that they cannot taint the other residents in the community. Dynamics of the SEQIR model is presented by basic reproduction number and the comprehensive stability analysis. Numerical results are depicted through apt graphical appearances using the data of five states and India.

摘要

本文试图通过一种流行病模型来描述严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（COVID-19）的爆发情况。这种病毒在不同国家有不同的影响。全球新型活跃冠状病毒病例数正在逐渐增加。印度目前正处于COVID-19传播的第二阶段，如果不根据该疾病传播的数据库采取适当的防护措施，很快就会成为一场流行病。本文利用COVID-19的当前数据进行数学建模及其动力学分析。我们引入一种新的表示方法，通过SEQIR大流行模型来评估和管理COVID-19传染病的爆发，该模型基于这样的假设：在潜伏期，检测呈阳性但未被检测出的感染者被送去隔离。在潜伏期，如果有任何个体感染了COVID-19，那么确诊的感染者将被隔离，并安排必要的治疗，以使他们不会感染社区中的其他居民。通过基本再生数和全面稳定性分析来呈现SEQIR模型的动力学。使用五个邦和印度的数据，通过适当的图形外观来描述数值结果。

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