Centre for Global Child Health, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada.
Data Science Initiative and Department of Medicine, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
East Mediterr Health J. 2020 Oct 13;26(10):1173-1183. doi: 10.26719/emhj.20.120.
Muslim majority countries have experienced a considerable burden of COVID-19 infection. However, there has been a relative lack of research comparing COVID-19 outbreaks and responses between Muslim-majority countries.
This study aimed to analyse COVID-19 burden, epidemiology and mitigation strategies in Muslim-majority countries.
We use a mixed-methods approach to describe the course of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the Islamic world, highlight the range of non-pharmaceutical interventions used and the speed with which they were implemented, and investigate reasons behind the differing responses between Muslim-majority countries. The number of cases and deaths per million population, and the mean time taken to implement a range of policies, were compared across the Islamic world. Cases per million population and the mean estimated doubling time for cases was compared between Muslim- majority countries on the basis of governance systems, rapidity of institution of mitigation strategies and conflict groups. We also evaluated pushback to implementation of measures within MMCs, especially from religious quarters.
Non-democratic regimes had much shorter doubling time of cases compared to functional democratic Muslim- majority countries (mean 33.9 versus 66.5 days, P = 0.002) and a significantly greater proportion of countries appeared to have flattened the curve by 1 June 2020 (43.8% versus 12.5%, P < 0.03). The doubling time was also significantly greater among countries who implemented lockdown and mitigation measures early (66.7 versus 16.7 days, P < 0.003).
Our analysis indicates wide diversity in the COVID-19 response across Muslim majority countries with clear indication that functional democracies were able to contain the epidemic significantly better than nondemocratic regimes. Future analysis should focus on determination of sub-national differentials and risks as well as targeting of interventions.
穆斯林占多数的国家感染 COVID-19 的负担相当沉重。然而，关于穆斯林占多数的国家 COVID-19 爆发和应对情况的研究相对较少。
本研究旨在分析穆斯林占多数的国家 COVID-19 的负担、流行病学和缓解策略。
我们采用混合方法来描述 COVID-19 在整个伊斯兰世界的流行过程，强调使用的非药物干预措施的范围以及实施的速度，并探讨穆斯林占多数的国家之间反应不同的原因。比较了伊斯兰世界内每百万人口的病例和死亡人数以及实施一系列政策的平均时间。根据治理制度、缓解策略的实施速度和冲突团体，比较了穆斯林占多数的国家的每百万人口的病例数和病例估计倍增时间的平均值。还评估了穆斯林占多数的国家内部实施措施所面临的阻力，特别是来自宗教部门的阻力。
非民主政权的病例倍增时间明显短于功能健全的穆斯林占多数的国家（平均 33.9 天对 66.5 天，P = 0.002），而且到 2020 年 6 月 1 日，似乎有更多的国家能够使曲线变平（43.8%对 12.5%，P < 0.03）。早期实施封锁和缓解措施的国家的倍增时间也明显更长（66.7 天对 16.7 天，P < 0.003）。
我们的分析表明，穆斯林占多数的国家在 COVID-19 应对方面存在广泛的多样性，明确表明功能健全的民主国家能够显著更好地控制疫情，而非民主政权则不然。未来的分析应侧重于确定次国家差异和风险，并针对干预措施进行定位。
