Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK.
Glob Chang Biol. 2021 Feb;27(3):624-639. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15417. Epub 2020 Nov 21.
Accurate biological models are critical to predict biotic responses to climate change and human-caused disturbances. Current understanding of organismal responses to change stems from studies over relatively short timescales. However, most projections lack long-term observations incorporating the potential for transgenerational phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaption, the keys to resistance. Here, we describe unexpected temporal compensatory responses in biomineralization as a mechanism for resistance to altered environmental conditions and predation impacts in a calcifying foundation species. We evaluated exceptional archival specimens of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis collected regularly between 1904 and 2016 along 15 km of Belgian coastline, along with records of key environmental descriptors and predators. Contrary to global-scale predictions, shell production increased over the last century, highlighting a protective capacity of mussels for qualitative and quantitative trade-offs in biomineralization as compensatory responses to altered environments. We also demonstrated the role of changes in predator communities in stimulating unanticipated biological trends that run contrary to experimental predictive models under future climate scenarios. Analysis of archival records has a key role for anticipating emergent impacts of climate change.
准确的生物模型对于预测生物对气候变化和人为干扰的反应至关重要。目前，我们对生物对变化的反应的理解源于相对较短时间尺度的研究。然而，大多数预测都缺乏长期的观察，这些观察没有纳入跨代表型可塑性和遗传适应的可能性，而这正是抵抗的关键。在这里，我们描述了生物矿化的意外时间补偿反应，这是一种抵抗环境条件改变和捕食影响的机制，这种影响发生在一种钙化基础物种中。我们评估了在比利时海岸线 15 公里范围内定期收集的贻贝 Mytilus edulis 的异常档案标本，以及关键环境描述符和捕食者的记录。与全球范围的预测相反，贝壳的产量在上个世纪增加了，这突出了贻贝在生物矿化方面具有定性和定量权衡的保护能力，这是对环境变化的补偿反应。我们还证明了捕食者群落变化的作用，这种变化刺激了未预料到的生物趋势，这些趋势与未来气候情景下的实验预测模型相悖。档案记录的分析对于预测气候变化的紧急影响具有关键作用。
