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基于模糊方法的 SEIR-SEI 登革热动力学分析。

Fuzzy Approach Analyzing SEIR-SEI Dengue Dynamics.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Bhaktapur Multiple Campus, Bhaktapur, Nepal.

Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Kathmandu University, Dhulikhel, Nepal.

出版信息

Biomed Res Int. 2020 Oct 14;2020:1508613. doi: 10.1155/2020/1508613. eCollection 2020.

DOI:10.1155/2020/1508613
PMID:33123563
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7582080/
Abstract

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne infectious disease threatening more than a hundred tropical countries of the world. The heterogeneity of mosquito bites of human during the spread of dengue virus is an important factor that should be considered while modeling the dynamics of the disease. However, traditional models assumed homogeneous transmission between host and vectors which is inconsistent with reality. Mathematically, we can describe the heterogeneity and uncertainty of the transmission of the disease by introducing fuzzy theory. In the present work, we study transmission dynamics of dengue with the fuzzy SEIR-SEI compartmental model. The transmission rate and recovery rate of the disease are considered as fuzzy numbers. The dynamical behavior of the system is discussed with different amounts of dengue viruses. Also, the fuzzy basic reproduction number for a group of infected individuals with different virus loads is calculated using Sugeno integral. Simulations are made to illustrate the mathematical results graphically.

摘要

登革热是一种由蚊子传播的传染病，威胁着世界上 100 多个热带国家。在登革热病毒传播过程中，人类被蚊子叮咬的异质性是在建模疾病动态时应考虑的一个重要因素。然而，传统模型假设宿主和媒介之间的传播是同质的，这与现实不符。从数学上讲，我们可以通过引入模糊理论来描述疾病传播的异质性和不确定性。在本工作中，我们使用模糊 SEIR-SEI 房室模型来研究登革热的传播动力学。疾病的传播率和恢复率被视为模糊数。我们还根据不同数量的登革热病毒来讨论系统的动态行为。此外，还使用 Sugeno 积分计算了具有不同病毒载量的一组感染个体的模糊基本繁殖数。模拟结果以图形方式说明数学结果。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/002527a4c326/BMRI2020-1508613.010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/e9ed2e7b5237/BMRI2020-1508613.001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/a963537d09b6/BMRI2020-1508613.002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/d50e41b36937/BMRI2020-1508613.003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/28001bf29402/BMRI2020-1508613.004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/8e2a5c0926a0/BMRI2020-1508613.005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/4df197cbf786/BMRI2020-1508613.006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/10d77b320188/BMRI2020-1508613.007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/5c96ad5b2df9/BMRI2020-1508613.008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/974d7dcfdbd9/BMRI2020-1508613.009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/002527a4c326/BMRI2020-1508613.010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/e9ed2e7b5237/BMRI2020-1508613.001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/a963537d09b6/BMRI2020-1508613.002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/d50e41b36937/BMRI2020-1508613.003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/28001bf29402/BMRI2020-1508613.004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/8e2a5c0926a0/BMRI2020-1508613.005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/4df197cbf786/BMRI2020-1508613.006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/10d77b320188/BMRI2020-1508613.007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/5c96ad5b2df9/BMRI2020-1508613.008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/974d7dcfdbd9/BMRI2020-1508613.009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a317/7582080/002527a4c326/BMRI2020-1508613.010.jpg

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