Pandey Hem Raj, Phaijoo Ganga Ram, Gurung Dil Bahadur
School of Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, Pokhara University, Nepal.
Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Kathmandu University, Nepal.
Heliyon. 2024 Jul 2;10(13):e33822. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33822. eCollection 2024 Jul 15.
An infectious disease called dengue is a significant health concern nowadays. The dengue outbreak occurred with a single serotype all over Nepal in 2023. In the tropical and subtropical regions, dengue fever is a leading cause of sickness and death. Currently, there is no specified treatment for dengue fever. Avoiding mosquito bites is strongly advised to reduce the likelihood of controlling this disease. In underdeveloped countries like Nepal, the implementation of appropriate control measures is the most important factor in preventing and controlling the spread of dengue illness. The Caputo fractional dengue model with optimum control variables, including mosquito repellent and insecticide use, investigates the impact of alternative control strategies to minimize dengue prevalence. Using the fixed point theorem, the existence and uniqueness of a solution will be demonstrated for the problem. Ulam-Hyers stability, disease-free equilibrium point stability, and basic reproduction number are studied for the proposed model. The model is simulated using a two-step Lagrange interpolation technique, and the least squares method is used to estimate parameter values using real monthly infected data. We then analyze the sensitivity analysis to determine influencing parameters and the control measure effects on the basic reproduction number. The Pontryagin Maximum Principle is used to determine the optimal control variable in the dengue model for control strategies. The present study suggests that the deployment of control measures is extremely successful in lowering infectious disease incidences. Which facilitates the decision-makers to practice rigorous evaluation of such an epidemiological scenario while implementing appropriate control measures to prevent dengue disease transmission in Nepal.
一种名为登革热的传染病是当今重大的健康问题。2023年，尼泊尔全境爆发了单一血清型的登革热疫情。在热带和亚热带地区，登革热是疾病和死亡的主要原因。目前，尚无针对登革热的特效治疗方法。强烈建议避免蚊虫叮咬以降低控制这种疾病的可能性。在尼泊尔等不发达国家，实施适当的控制措施是预防和控制登革热疾病传播的最重要因素。具有最佳控制变量（包括使用驱蚊剂和杀虫剂）的卡普托分数阶登革热模型，研究了替代控制策略对最小化登革热流行率的影响。利用不动点定理，将证明该问题解的存在性和唯一性。对所提出的模型研究了乌拉姆 - 海尔斯稳定性、无病平衡点稳定性和基本再生数。使用两步拉格朗日插值技术对模型进行模拟，并使用最小二乘法利用实际月度感染数据估计参数值。然后我们进行敏感性分析以确定影响参数以及控制措施对基本再生数的影响。利用庞特里亚金极大值原理确定登革热模型中控制策略的最优控制变量。本研究表明，控制措施的部署在降低传染病发病率方面极其成功。这有助于决策者在实施适当控制措施以预防尼泊尔登革热疾病传播时，对这种流行病学情况进行严格评估。
