Pardo Bryce
RAND Corporation, 1200 S Hayes St Arlington, Virginia 22202, United States.
Int J Drug Policy. 2021 Jul;93:102833. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2020.102833. Epub 2020 Oct 27.
International commerce and travel have been restricted in order to limit the spread of COVID-19. The illegal trafficking in drugs, which is often concealed in other commercial activity, will be affected by these disruptions. This is particularly true for precursor chemicals, controlled substances of synthetic origin, and new psychoactive substances coming from Asia. China hosts large and under-regulated pharmaceutical and chemical sectors that provide many of the active ingredients used both in legitimate medicines and illicit fentanyl and methamphetamine. Unregulated producers and vendors in China have been supplying drug trafficking organizations in Mexico or using the internet and postal service to directly sell fentanyl to buyers in North America. The magnitude of supply shortages and interrupted trade of chemicals and synthetic drugs coming from China will depend on the breadth and depth of COVID-19's disruptions. In turn, this could impact vulnerable drug-using populations. Drawing on historical accounts of prior supply disruptions, this commentary offers some initial speculation as to the possible effects of COVID-19 on the supply of synthetic drugs like fentanyl and precursor chemicals supplied to North America from China, which may have important lessons for other parts of the globe. Prior supply disruptions coincided with elevated prices and reduced purities of street drugs as well as increases in the number of users entering treatment. However, it is challenging to predict how developments will unfold given the unprecedented nature of this pandemic. A short-term breakdown in supply chains, interrupted trade, or social distancing mandates may not have much of an effect on the availability of synthetic drugs. Yet, disruptions in trade for months or years could shape how drugs are supplied or used. Drug policy will need to evaluate market indicators as soon as they are available but responding now with expanded medication therapies, like methadone, may help save lives. The drug policy landscape could look different in a post-COVID world.
为了限制新冠病毒的传播，国际商业和旅行受到了限制。经常隐藏在其他商业活动中的毒品非法贩运将受到这些干扰的影响。对于来自亚洲的前体化学品、合成来源的管制物质和新型精神活性物质来说尤其如此。中国拥有庞大且监管不足的制药和化工行业，这些行业提供了许多用于合法药品以及非法芬太尼和甲基苯丙胺的活性成分。中国不受监管的生产商和供应商一直在向墨西哥的贩毒组织供货，或利用互联网和邮政服务直接向北美买家销售芬太尼。来自中国的化学品和合成毒品供应短缺及贸易中断的程度将取决于新冠疫情干扰的广度和深度。反过来，这可能会影响易感染毒品的人群。借鉴以往供应中断的历史记录，本评论对新冠疫情可能对从中国供应到北美的芬太尼等合成毒品及前体化学品供应产生的影响进行了一些初步猜测，这可能会给全球其他地区带来重要教训。以往的供应中断伴随着街头毒品价格上涨、纯度降低以及进入治疗的使用者数量增加。然而，鉴于此次疫情的前所未有的性质，预测事态将如何发展具有挑战性。供应链的短期中断、贸易中断或社交距离规定可能对合成毒品的供应影响不大。然而，数月或数年的贸易中断可能会影响毒品的供应或使用方式。毒品政策需要在市场指标一出现时就进行评估，但现在通过扩大美沙酮等药物治疗来做出回应可能有助于挽救生命。新冠疫情后的毒品政策格局可能会有所不同。
