Weersink Alfons, von Massow Mike, Bannon Nicholas, Ifft Jennifer, Maples Josh, McEwan Ken, McKendree Melissa G S, Nicholson Charles, Novakovic Andrew, Rangarajan Anusuya, Richards Timothy, Rickard Bradley, Rude James, Schipanski Meagan, Schnitkey Gary, Schulz Lee, Schuurman Daniel, Schwartzkopf-Genswein Karen, Stephenson Mark, Thompson Jada, Wood Katie
University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada.
Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States of America.
Agric Syst. 2021 Mar;188:103039. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103039. Epub 2020 Dec 23.
Agri-food supply chains in North America have become remarkably efficient, supplying an unprecedented variety of items at the lowest possible cost. However, the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and the near-total temporary loss of the foodservice distribution channel, exposed a vulnerability that many found surprising. Instead of continued shortages, however, the agri-food sector has since moved back to near normal conditions with prices and production levels similar to those typically observed in years prior to the pandemic. Ironically, the specialization in most food supply chains designed for "just-in-time" delivery to specific customers with no reserve capacity, which led to the initial disruptions, may have also been responsible for its rapid rebound. A common theme in assessing the impacts across the six commodities examined is the growing importance of understanding the whole supply chain. Over the longer term, a continuation of the pandemic could push the supply chain toward greater consolidation of firms and diversification of products given the increasing option value of maintaining flexibility. Other structural changes will be felt through input markets, most notably labour, as the trend toward greater automation will continue to accelerate as a response to meeting concerns about a consistent supply of healthy and productive workers. The economic fall out from the pandemic may lead to greater concentration in the sector as some firms are not able to survive the downturn and changes in consumer food buying behaviour, including movement toward online shopping and enhanced demand for attributes associated with resiliency, such as local. On the other hand, online shopping may provide opportunities for small producers and processors to shorten supply chains and reach customers directly. In the long term, COVID-19 impacts on global commerce and developing country production are more uncertain and could influence poverty reduction. While COVID-19's impacts on North American agriculture should have minimal effect on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through food prices, the ongoing global trends in trade and agribusiness accelerated by the pandemic are relevant for achievement of the SDGs.
北美的农业食品供应链已经变得极其高效，以尽可能低的成本供应着前所未有的各类产品。然而，新冠疫情初期以及食品服务分销渠道几乎完全暂时中断，暴露出了一个令许多人惊讶的脆弱性。不过，农业食品部门此后并未持续短缺，而是已恢复到接近正常的状态，价格和生产水平与疫情前几年通常观察到的情况相似。具有讽刺意味的是，大多数为“即时”交付给特定客户而设计且没有储备能力的食品供应链专业化，虽导致了最初的中断，但可能也促成了其迅速反弹。在评估所研究的六种商品的影响时，一个共同的主题是理解整个供应链的重要性日益凸显。从长远来看，鉴于保持灵活性的期权价值不断增加，疫情的持续可能会推动供应链走向企业更大程度的整合和产品多样化。其他结构性变化将在投入市场，尤其是劳动力市场体现出来，因为随着对健康且高效的工人持续供应的担忧，自动化程度提高的趋势将继续加速。疫情带来的经济影响可能导致该行业集中度提高，因为一些公司无法在经济低迷和消费者食品购买行为变化中存活下来，消费者食品购买行为的变化包括转向网上购物以及对与弹性相关属性（如本地属性）的需求增加。另一方面，网上购物可能为小生产商和加工商提供机会，缩短供应链并直接接触客户。从长远来看，新冠疫情对全球商业和发展中国家生产的影响更不确定，可能会影响减贫。虽然新冠疫情对北美农业的影响通过食品价格对可持续发展目标（SDGs）的影响应该最小，但疫情加速的全球贸易和农业综合企业的当前趋势与实现可持续发展目标相关。
