The George Institute for Global Health and the Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
PLoS Med. 2020 Nov 2;17(11):e1003407. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003407. eCollection 2020 Nov.
BACKGROUND: trans-fatty acids (TFAs) are a well-known risk factor of ischemic heart disease (IHD). In Australia, the highest TFA intake is concentrated to the most socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. Elimination of industrial TFA (iTFA) from the Australian food supply could result in reduced IHD mortality and morbidity while improving health equity. However, such legislation could lead to additional costs for both government and food industry. Thus, we assessed the potential cost-effectiveness, health gains, and effects on health equality of an iTFA ban from the Australian food supply. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Markov cohort models were used to estimate the impact on IHD burden and health equity, as well as the cost-effectiveness of a national ban of iTFA in Australia. Intake of TFA was assessed using the 2011-2012 Australian National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey. The IHD burden attributable to TFA was calculated by comparing the current level of TFA intake to a counterfactual setting where consumption was lowered to a theoretical minimum distribution with a mean of 0.5% energy per day (corresponding to TFA intake only from nonindustrial sources, e.g., dairy foods). Policy costs, avoided IHD events and deaths, health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, and changes in IHD-related healthcare costs saved were estimated over 10 years and lifetime of the adult Australian population. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by calculation of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using net policy cost and HALYs gained. Health benefits and healthcare cost changes were also assessed in subgroups based on socioeconomic status, defined by Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) quintile, and remoteness. Compared to a base case of no ban and current TFA intakes, elimination of iTFA was estimated to prevent 2,294 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,765; 2,851) IHD deaths and 9,931 (95% UI: 8,429; 11,532) IHD events over the first 10 years. The greatest health benefits were accrued to the most socioeconomically disadvantaged quintiles and among Australians living outside of major cities. The intervention was estimated to be cost saving (net cost <0 AUD) or cost-effective (i.e., ICER < AUD 169,361/HALY) regardless of the time horizon, with ICERs of 1,073 (95% UI: dominant; 3,503) and 1,956 (95% UI: 1,010; 2,750) AUD/HALY over 10 years and lifetime, respectively. Findings were robust across several sensitivity analyses. Key limitations of the study include the lack of recent data of TFA intake and the small sample sizes used to estimate intakes in subgroups. As with all simulation models, our study does not prove that a ban of iTFA will prevent IHD, rather, it provides the best quantitative estimates and corresponding uncertainty of a potential effect in the absence of stronger direct evidence. CONCLUSIONS: Our model estimates that a ban of iTFAs could avert substantial numbers of IHD events and deaths in Australia and would likely be a highly cost-effective strategy to reduce social-economic and urban-rural inequalities in health. These findings suggest that elimination of iTFA can cost-effectively improve health and health equality even in countries with low iTFA intake.
背景:反式脂肪酸(TFAs)是缺血性心脏病(IHD)的已知危险因素。在澳大利亚,TFAs 的摄入量最高的人群集中在社会经济最弱势群体。从澳大利亚的食品供应中消除工业 TFAs(iTFA)可能会降低 IHD 的死亡率和发病率,同时改善健康公平性。然而,这种立法可能会给政府和食品行业带来额外的成本。因此,我们评估了从澳大利亚食品供应中禁止 iTFA 的潜在成本效益、健康收益以及对健康公平性的影响。
方法和发现:我们使用马尔可夫队列模型来估计禁止澳大利亚 iTFA 的全国禁令对 IHD 负担和健康公平性的影响,以及其成本效益。TFAs 的摄入量通过 2011-2012 年澳大利亚国家营养和身体活动调查进行评估。通过将当前的 TFA 摄入量与理论最小值分布的反事实设置进行比较,计算出 TFA 摄入量对 IHD 负担的影响,该分布的平均值为每天 0.5%的能量(对应于仅来自非工业来源的 TFA 摄入量,例如乳制品)。在 10 年和澳大利亚成年人口的一生中,估计了政策成本、避免的 IHD 事件和死亡、获得的健康调整生命年(HALYs)以及节省的与 IHD 相关的医疗保健成本变化。通过计算增量成本效益比(ICER),使用净政策成本和获得的 HALYs 来评估成本效益。还根据社会经济地位(根据社会经济指数区域(SEIFA)五分位数定义)和偏远程度,在亚组中评估了健康收益和医疗保健成本变化。与没有禁令和当前 TFA 摄入量的基础情况相比,消除 iTFA 预计将在头 10 年内预防 2294 例(95%置信区间 [UI]:1765;2851)IHD 死亡和 9931 例(95% UI:8429;11532)IHD 事件。最大的健康收益归因于社会经济地位最不利的五分位数和居住在主要城市以外的澳大利亚人。无论时间范围如何,该干预措施都被估计为节省成本(净成本 <0 澳元)或具有成本效益(即,ICER <169361 澳元/HALY),10 年和终生的 ICER 分别为 1073(95% UI:主导;3503)和 1956(95% UI:1010;2750)澳元/HALY。在几个敏感性分析中,结果都是稳健的。该研究的主要局限性包括缺乏最新的 TFA 摄入量数据和用于估计亚组摄入量的小样本量。与所有模拟模型一样,我们的研究并不能证明禁止 iTFA 会预防 IHD,而是提供了在没有更强直接证据的情况下,对潜在影响的最佳定量估计和相应的不确定性。
结论:我们的模型估计,禁止 iTFAs 可以在澳大利亚预防大量的 IHD 事件和死亡,并且可能是一种非常具有成本效益的策略,可以降低社会经济和城乡健康不平等。这些发现表明,即使在 iTFA 摄入量较低的国家,消除 iTFA 也可以有效地改善健康和健康公平。
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