Shi Hongxu, Chang Ming
School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China.
Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(18):52943-52957. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-25996-5. Epub 2023 Feb 27.
China continues to emphasize the importance of reducing agricultural carbon emissions and promoting the upgrading of its agricultural industry structure. However, the relationship between the two is rarely examined. This study aims to investigate the impact of upgrading the agricultural industry structure on agricultural carbon emissions. A two-stage instrumental technique and a threshold regression model are used in this study's analysis. The results indicate that agricultural industrial structure upgrading reduces agricultural carbon emissions by a statistically significant amount above the threshold of 0.378. The examination of the underlying mechanism shows agricultural energy efficiency and off-farm work as mediators of the nonlinear relationship between agricultural industrial structure upgrading and agricultural carbon emissions. Only when the agricultural energy efficiency and off-farm work thresholds are surpassed can improving the structure of the agricultural industry minimize agricultural carbon emissions. Analysis of heterogeneity indicates that the threshold for lowering agricultural carbon emissions is greater in northern China, but the potential for reduction is greater.
中国继续强调减少农业碳排放和推动农业产业结构升级的重要性。然而，二者之间的关系鲜有研究。本研究旨在探究农业产业结构升级对农业碳排放的影响。本研究分析中采用了两阶段工具变量法和门槛回归模型。结果表明，当农业产业结构升级超过0.378的门槛值时，会在统计上显著减少农业碳排放。对潜在机制的考察表明，农业能源效率和农村劳动力转移是农业产业结构升级与农业碳排放之间非线性关系的中介变量。只有当农业能源效率和农村劳动力转移超过门槛值时，改善农业产业结构才能使农业碳排放降至最低。异质性分析表明，中国北方降低农业碳排放的门槛更高，但减排潜力更大。
