Niu Junjun, Mao Chunmei
School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing, 211100, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 14;15(1):1934. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-84424-x.
The Yellow River Basin is China's grain production base and ecological barrier, with an important strategic position. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze spatiotemporal pattern of ecosystem services and agricultural green, and further exploring the driving mechanism of coordination using the GTWR model to examine how the Yellow River Basin's agriculture evolve sustainably. The results indicate that: (1) In 2011-2021, the Yellow River Basin's ecosystem service value showed a state of growth first and then decline, indicating that the decrease trend cannot be ignored; the Yellow River Basin has seen a steady rise in agricultural green level, with regional disparities progressively disappearing. (2) Although the Yellow River Basin's agriculture and ecosystem has tended towards coordinated development, it was still in the primary stage of coordination; the tendency of downstream > midstream > upstream was seen in the notable geographical disparities, and the gap was continuously closing. (3) The harmonization of ecosystem service value and agricultural green development is driven by multiple factors. The influence of social factors has undergone a transition from negative influence to positive influence; economic factors generally had a positive impact, but there existed a certain amount of instability; the overall state of natural factors was relatively stable, with little change in areas with positive coefficients. In areas with negative coefficients, their negative effects gradually decreased and showed a trend towards positive development. In light of the finding above, some recommendations are put forth to promote sustainable agricultural production.
黄河流域是中国的粮食生产基地和生态屏障，具有重要的战略地位。因此，分析生态系统服务与农业绿色发展的时空格局，并运用地理加权回归（GTWR）模型进一步探究二者协调发展的驱动机制，对于审视黄河流域农业如何实现可持续发展具有重要意义。研究结果表明：（1）2011—2021年，黄河流域生态系统服务价值呈先增长后下降的态势，下降趋势不容忽视；黄河流域农业绿色发展水平呈稳步上升趋势，区域差异逐渐缩小。（2）黄河流域农业与生态系统虽已趋于协调发展，但仍处于协调发展的初级阶段；地理差异显著，呈现下游>中游>上游的趋势，且差距不断缩小。（3）生态系统服务价值与农业绿色发展的协调受到多种因素驱动。社会因素的影响已从负面影响转变为正面影响；经济因素总体上具有积极影响，但存在一定的不稳定性；自然因素的整体状态相对稳定，正系数区域变化不大。在负系数区域，其负面影响逐渐减小，呈现出正向发展趋势。基于上述研究结果，提出了一些促进农业可持续生产的建议。
