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运用多项逻辑回归方法调查交通违法影响因素。

Investigating influence factors of traffic violation using multinomial logit method.

机构信息

School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Sichuan, Chengdu, China.

Civil Engineering Department, Addis Ababa Science & Technology University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

出版信息

Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2021 Mar;28(1):78-85. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2020.1843499. Epub 2020 Nov 8.

DOI:10.1080/17457300.2020.1843499
PMID:33164648
Abstract

Deaths and injuries resulted from road traffic crashes remain a serious problem globally, and current trends suggest that this will continue to be the case in the foreseeable future mainly in developing countries. Among diverse cause of traffic safety challenges, traffic violation has been considered as one of the noticeable contributing factors. The main aim of the study is to identify and evaluate the major traffic violation with related risk factors using multinomial logit model. Traffic violation data of Luzhou were collected from Sichuan Province Public Security Department, China. The study result revealed six major traffic violations, including traffic light violation, illegal parking, wrong-way driving, speeding, and NOT wearing a seat belt. Urban roads classified with congested driving and severe weather conditions were the major risk factors. Among different vehicle types and use, those small car/automobile categories with private purpose use exhibit statistically significant association (p-value < 0.05) with the aforementioned traffic violations. Taking into consideration these risky contributing factors during the development of traffic regulations and enforcement will help to reduce traffic violations and create a smooth/healthy driving condition with improved traffic safety and will also increase the performance of driving in general.

摘要

道路交通事故造成的死亡和伤害仍然是一个严重的全球性问题,目前的趋势表明,在可预见的未来,这种情况将主要在发展中国家继续存在。在造成交通安全挑战的各种原因中,交通违法行为被认为是一个显著的促成因素。本研究的主要目的是使用多项逻辑回归模型确定和评估主要的交通违法行为及其相关危险因素。泸州的交通违法行为数据来自中国四川省公安厅。研究结果显示了六种主要的交通违法行为,包括闯红灯、违法停车、逆行、超速和不系安全带。交通拥挤和恶劣天气条件的城市道路是主要的危险因素。在不同的车辆类型和用途中,那些具有私人用途的小型汽车/汽车类别与上述交通违法行为具有统计学上的显著关联(p 值<0.05)。在制定交通法规和执法时考虑这些危险的促成因素,将有助于减少交通违法行为,创造更顺畅/健康的驾驶环境,提高交通安全水平,并提高整体驾驶性能。

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