Alver Y, Demirel M C, Mutlu M M
Department of Civil Engineering, Ege University, Izmir, Turkey.
Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Ege University, Izmir, Turkey.
Accid Anal Prev. 2014 Nov;72:95-104. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.06.015. Epub 2014 Jul 12.
Young drivers' high traffic violation involvement rate and significant contribution to traffic crashes compared to older drivers creates the need for detailed analyses of factors affecting young drivers' behaviors. This study is based on survey data collected from 2,057 18-29 year old young adults. Data were collected via face-to-face questionnaire surveys in four different cities in Turkey. The main objective of this study is to identify the relationship between socio-demographic characteristics, traffic rule violations, and traffic crashes among young drivers. Four main traffic rule violations are examined: red light violations, seat belt violations, speeding, and driving under the influence of alcohol, which are decisive in determining driving behavior and traffic crashes. The survey investigates the socio-demographic characteristics, traffic rule violation behavior and traffic crash histories of young adults. Four hypothetical scenarios were prepared for each traffic rule violation and data from the scenarios were modeled using the ordered probit model. Significant variables affecting each traffic rule violation are stated. Finally, significant variables that interact with crash involvements were investigated with binary logit models. According to the data analysis, 23.9% of drivers stated that they were involved in at least one traffic crash within the last three years. This crash rate increases to 38.3% for those who received at least one traffic citation/violation in last three years and peaks to 47.4% for those who were fined for seat belt violations in last three years.
与年长司机相比,年轻司机的交通违规参与率较高,且对交通事故的影响重大,因此需要对影响年轻司机行为的因素进行详细分析。本研究基于对2057名18至29岁年轻人收集的调查数据。数据是通过在土耳其四个不同城市进行的面对面问卷调查收集的。本研究的主要目的是确定年轻司机的社会人口特征、交通规则违规行为与交通事故之间的关系。研究考察了四项主要的交通规则违规行为:闯红灯、不系安全带、超速以及酒后驾车,这些行为对于确定驾驶行为和交通事故具有决定性作用。该调查研究了年轻人的社会人口特征、交通规则违规行为和交通事故历史。针对每项交通规则违规行为准备了四个假设情景,并使用有序概率模型对情景数据进行建模。阐述了影响每项交通规则违规行为的显著变量。最后,使用二元逻辑回归模型研究了与事故卷入相关的显著变量。根据数据分析,23.9%的司机表示他们在过去三年内至少发生过一次交通事故。对于那些在过去三年内至少收到一次交通罚单/违规的人来说,这一事故率上升到38.3%,而对于那些在过去三年内因不系安全带被罚款的人来说,事故率最高达到47.4%。