如何解读伊朗新冠肺炎疫情曲线？
How Can the Epidemic Curve of COVID-19 in Iran Be Interpreted?
作者信息
Doosti-Irani Amin, Haghdoost Ali Akbar, Najafi Farid, Eybpoosh Sana, Moradi Ghobad, Bagheri Amiri Fahimeh, Mounesan Leila, Mostafavi Ehsan
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Research Center for Health Sciences, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Research Center for Health Sciences, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
出版信息
J Res Health Sci. 2020 Oct 4;20(3):e00491. doi: 10.34172/jrhs.2020.27.
BACKGROUND
Iran is one of the countries most affected by COVID-19. This review provides possible interpretations of the observed trend of COVID-19 in Iran.
STUDY DESIGN
A rapid review METHODS: We reviewed the daily new cases of COVID-19 based on hospitalized and outpatients, reported deaths, and diagnostic testing in Iran.
RESULTS
Iran reported its first peak in the number of cases in late March, 2020. From the 1 April to 3 May 2020, the downward trend in the number of cases was started. The death trend also showed a peak in early April as well as a downward trend in late April. During May, the number of death cases showed a stable trend with a daily number of deaths ranging between 50 and 75 cases. Then the number of deaths gradually increased.
CONCLUSION
The epidemic curve in Iran is a function of different factors such number of total tests, change in mitigation policies, and heterogeneities among different provinces in the country. Therefore it should be interpreted under the light of the effect of such factors.
背景
伊朗是受新冠疫情影响最严重的国家之一。本综述对伊朗观察到的新冠疫情趋势提供了可能的解读。
研究设计
快速综述
方法
我们基于伊朗住院患者和门诊患者的新冠每日新增病例、报告的死亡病例以及诊断检测情况进行了综述。
结果
伊朗于2020年3月下旬报告了病例数的首个峰值。从2020年4月1日至5月3日，病例数开始呈下降趋势。死亡趋势在4月初也出现了一个峰值，并在4月下旬呈下降趋势。5月期间，死亡病例数呈稳定趋势，每日死亡人数在50至75例之间。然后死亡人数逐渐增加。
结论
伊朗的疫情曲线是多种因素的函数，如总检测数、缓解政策的变化以及该国不同省份之间的异质性。因此，应根据这些因素的影响来进行解读。
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