Gahn Marie Cicille Ba, Niakh Fallou, Ciss Mamadou, Seck Ismaila, Lo Modou Moustapha, Fall Assane Gueye, Biteye Biram, Fall Moussa, Ndiaye Mbengué, Ba Aminata, Seck Momar Talla, Sall Baba, Lo Mbargou, Faye Coumba, Squarzoni-Diaw Cécile, Ka Alioune, Amevoin Yves, Apolloni Andrea
Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, Senegal.
ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, F-34398 Montpellier, France.
Microorganisms. 2020 Nov 11;8(11):1766. doi: 10.3390/microorganisms8111766.
Bluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to enable the identification of high-risk transmission areas. In this work we use bioclimatic and environmental variables to predict vector abundance, and estimate spatial variations in the basic reproductive ratio R0. The resulting estimates were combined with livestock mobility and serological data to assess the risk of Bluetongue outbreaks in Senegal. The results show an increasing abundance of , , , and from north to south. R0 < 1 for most areas of Senegal, whilst southern (Casamance) and southeastern (Kedougou and part of Tambacounda) agro-pastoral areas have the highest risk of outbreak (R0 = 2.7 and 2.9, respectively). The next higher risk areas are in the Senegal River Valley (R0 = 1.07), and the Atlantic coast zones. Seroprevalence rates, shown by cELISA, weren't positively correlated with outbreak probability. Future works should include follow-up studies of competent vector abundancies and serological surveys based on the results of the risk analysis conducted here to optimize the national epidemiological surveillance system.
蓝舌病是一种影响小型反刍动物和牛的非传染性病毒性疾病，可给畜牧业造成严重经济损失。该病毒由库蠓属的某些物种传播，因此，了解它们的分布对于识别高风险传播区域至关重要。在这项研究中，我们利用生物气候和环境变量来预测媒介丰度，并估计基本繁殖率R0的空间变化。将所得估计值与牲畜流动性和血清学数据相结合，以评估塞内加尔蓝舌病暴发的风险。结果显示，从北到南，库蠓属的某些物种、、和的丰度不断增加。塞内加尔大部分地区的R0 < 1，而南部（卡萨芒斯）和东南部（凯杜古以及坦巴昆达的部分地区）农牧区暴发风险最高（R0分别为2.7和2.9）。次高风险地区位于塞内加尔河谷（R0 = 1.07）和大西洋沿岸地区。间接竞争ELISA显示的血清阳性率与暴发概率无正相关关系。未来的工作应包括根据此处进行的风险分析结果，对有效媒介丰度进行跟踪研究以及开展血清学调查，以优化国家流行病学监测系统。
