Prognostic Nomograms Predicting Survival in Patients With Locally Advanced Cervical Squamous Cell Carcinoma: The First Nomogram Compared With Revised FIGO 2018 Staging System.

OBJECTIVES

To develop nomograms to assess prognostic factors for 5-year overall survival (OS) and 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) in locally advanced cervical squamous cell carcinoma (LACSC).

METHODS

Overall, 618 patients with LACSC were included in this retrospective analysis. Nomograms for 5-year OS and PFS were developed based on Cox proportional hazards regression models. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves were used to define the predictive and discriminatory capacity of the nomogram. A comparison between the nomogram and the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system was conducted using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) and area under the curve (tAUC).

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis identified several prognostic factors for OS including squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC-Ag), body mass index (BMI), tumor size, pelvic wall involvement, and para-aortic lymph node metastasis (PALNM). Prognostic factors for PFS included BMI, hemoglobin (HGB), tumor size, pelvic wall involvement, pelvic lymph node metastasis (PLNM) and PALNM. Following bootstrap correction, the C-index of OS and PFS was 0.713 and 0.686, respectively. These nomograms showed superior performance compared with the FIGO 2009 and 2018 staging schema.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomograms were developed to identify prognostic factors for 5-year OS and PFS in patients with LACSC. These nomograms showed good prognostication and are more comprehensive in predicting survival outcomes than existing staging criteria.