Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Bartın University, Bartın, Turkey.
Department of Fighting Forest Fires (Retired), General Directorate of Forestry, Ankara, Turkey.
Environ Manage. 2021 Jan;67(1):162-175. doi: 10.1007/s00267-020-01389-z. Epub 2020 Nov 16.
Fire behavior should be estimated accurately and multidimensionally to reduce the dangers and harmful effects of forest fires and to develop effective fire management strategies. Therefore, in this study, the most important factors affecting fire behavior were determined by statistical methods using data of 59 large forest fires that occurred between 1977 and 2017 in Turkey. Some data were obtained from the General Directorate of Forestry, and the remaining were obtained from meteorological stations and Google Maps. The large forest fires were investigated with descriptive statistics. Correlation, regression with generalized models, and factor analyses were performed. It was discovered that the rate of spread is particularly related to the wind direction, wind speed, and stand canopy. The most important factors affecting the behavior of large forest fires were determined as (1) stand age, (2) stand canopy, (3) wind direction, (4) wind speed, (5) altitude, and (6) aspect, and 76% of fire behavior is linked to these factors. Moreover, a forest fire behavior index (FFBI) was developed for large forest fires. They were categorized into three classes using the FFBI, and the characteristics of each class were identified. Finally, the findings were discussed, and suggestions for fire management were presented.
为了降低森林火灾的危险和有害影响，并制定有效的火灾管理策略，应准确且多维地估计火灾行为。因此，本研究使用了 1977 年至 2017 年期间在土耳其发生的 59 起大型森林火灾的数据，通过统计方法确定了影响火灾行为的最重要因素。部分数据来自林业总局，其余数据来自气象站和谷歌地图。对大型森林火灾进行了描述性统计分析。进行了相关性、广义模型回归和因子分析。研究发现，蔓延速度与风向、风速和林冠特别相关。影响大型森林火灾行为的最重要因素被确定为：（1）林分年龄；（2）林冠；（3）风向；（4）风速；（5）海拔；（6）坡向，76%的火灾行为与这些因素有关。此外，还为大型森林火灾开发了一个火灾行为指数（FFBI）。使用 FFBI 将它们分为三个类别，并确定了每个类别的特征。最后，讨论了研究结果，并提出了火灾管理建议。
