Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Bartin University, Bartin, Turkey.
Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Department of Landscape Architecture, Kastamonu University, Kastamonu, Turkey.
Environ Monit Assess. 2021 Jan 3;193(1):28. doi: 10.1007/s10661-020-08800-6.
In contrast to the expectations of an increase in annual fire activity and the severity of fire season due to climate change and large fires, which have been occurring in recent years, a downtrend has been identified in fire activity in many studies conducted for the whole of Europe in recent years. Similarly, in Turkey, according to the General Directorate of Forestry statistics, while there is an increase in the number of annual fires, the burnt area has a downtrend pattern. In this study, fire activity and climate data statistics for Turkey were examined along with the fire season length and severity. The results obtained conform with the studies conducted in places from Spain at the westernmost part of Mediterranean Europe to Israel at the easternmost part of the Mediterranean. Considering the changes in temperatures, temperature rise of 2 to 3 °C was detected at all stations in the study area. No decrease was observed in the average temperatures at any of the stations within the study period between 1940 and 2018. On the other hand, the precipitation trend varied according to the stations. Although there have been increases in precipitation in Fethiye, Isparta, and Marmaris since 1960, the decrease in precipitation by 132 mm in Afyon since 1970 and the decrease in precipitation by 137 mm in Bodrum since 1940 are attention-grabbing. These stations are followed by Izmir station with 66 mm and Cesme station with 37 mm of decrease, despite being smaller decreases. In the study, the long-term (1940-2018) data of the meteorological stations discussed within the study, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) values were calculated. According to the FWI results used in determining the severity and length of fire season on the coastline of Turkey from the northern Aegean to Antalya, the likelihood of large fires decreased by about 52% in 2018 compared to 1970. This decrease in FWI value indicates that the fire severity is reduced. The specified decrease in fire severity also explains the reason of the decrease in the burnt area that occurred over the years in Turkey. No significant change was observed in the FFMC values indicating the possibility of human-induced fires between 1970 and 2018.
与气候变化和近年来发生的大火导致的年度火灾活动和火灾季节严重程度增加的预期相反，近年来对整个欧洲进行的多项研究表明，火灾活动呈下降趋势。同样，在土耳其，根据林业总局的统计数据，虽然每年火灾的数量有所增加，但燃烧面积呈下降趋势。在这项研究中，检查了土耳其的火灾活动和气候数据统计以及火灾季节的长度和严重程度。结果与在从地中海西部的西班牙到东部的以色列的地中海地区的其他地方进行的研究一致。考虑到温度的变化，在研究区域的所有站点都检测到 2 到 3°C 的温度升高。在 1940 年至 2018 年期间，研究区域内的所有站点的平均温度都没有下降。另一方面，降水趋势因站点而异。虽然自 1960 年以来费特希耶、伊斯帕尔塔和马尔马里斯的降水有所增加，但自 1970 年以来阿菲永的降水减少了 132 毫米，自 1940 年以来博德鲁姆的降水减少了 137 毫米，这引起了人们的注意。紧随其后的是伊兹密尔站，减少了 66 毫米，切什梅站减少了 37 毫米，尽管减少幅度较小。在研究中，计算了在所讨论的研究站的长期（1940-2018 年）气象数据、加拿大火灾气象指数（FWI）和细可燃物水分含量代码（FFMC）值。根据 1970 年至 2018 年期间从北爱琴海到安塔利亚的土耳其海岸线火灾季节严重程度和长度的 FWI 结果，2018 年大火的可能性比 1970 年降低了约 52%。FWI 值的这种降低表明火灾的严重程度降低了。火灾严重程度的指定降低也解释了土耳其多年来燃烧面积减少的原因。在 1970 年至 2018 年期间，FFMC 值没有观察到表明人为火灾可能性的重大变化。
