School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing 100875, P. R. China.
Center for Global Environmental Policy, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing 100875, P. R. China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2020 Dec 15;54(24):16108-16118. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.0c03863. Epub 2020 Nov 19.
The recent "US-China trade war" has aroused concern over trade-related environmental impacts. This study built a multiregional computable general equilibrium model to simulate environmental impacts of the "US-China trade war" under different scenarios of tariff and nontariff barriers and the battlefield spreading ranges. The present study found that although the trade war will cause a global economic downturn, which will seemingly reduce environmental pressure globally, global carbon emissions are expected to increase rather than decline. On the one hand, the CO emission increase caused by land-use changes in Brazil and Argentina will far exceed the emission reduction because of decreased global production. On the other hand, some countries/economies especially those developing countries such as Vietnam, Russia, and India will face emission increases driven by scale effects. Countries such as Korea, the UK, and France will enjoy a reduction in emissions driven by structural effects. China and the US will face a reduction in production and CO emissions, but their CO emission intensities will rise. The results remind us that as global production and supply chains are formed, it is important to closely monitor trade-related environmental impacts. Efforts should be made to balance the interests of trade and the environment.
近期的“中美贸易战”引发了人们对贸易相关环境影响的担忧。本研究构建了一个多区域可计算一般均衡模型，以模拟在不同关税和非关税壁垒以及战场扩散范围情景下“中美贸易战”的环境影响。本研究发现，尽管贸易战将导致全球经济衰退，从而在全球范围内减轻环境压力，但全球碳排放量预计将增加而非减少。一方面，由于全球产量下降，巴西和阿根廷土地利用变化所导致的 CO 排放增加，将远远超过减排量。另一方面，一些国家/经济体，尤其是越南、俄罗斯和印度等发展中国家，将受到规模效应驱动的排放增加。韩国、英国和法国等国家将受益于结构效应驱动的排放量减少。中国和美国将面临生产和 CO 排放量减少的局面，但它们的 CO 排放强度将会上升。研究结果提醒我们，随着全球生产和供应链的形成，密切监测贸易相关的环境影响至关重要。应努力平衡贸易和环境利益。
