Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.
Planning and Development Department, Government of Punjab, Punjab Economic Research Institute, Lahore, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Mar;28(12):14844-14853. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-11472-x. Epub 2020 Nov 21.
The main objective of this study was to capture farmers' perceptions and adaptations to climate change in agriculture sector. Along with this, it also identified farmers' adaptations to perceived climate change. Binary logit models were applied on data of 386 farmers, collected from three different agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, to present a comprehensive analysis of different adaptation strategies missing in the existing literature. The coefficients of a binary logit model only explain the direction of change; therefore, to see the magnitude of change, marginal effects were also estimated. Findings revealed that farmers perceived climate change and opted different adaptation strategies. Results of binary logit models described age, education, farming experience, landholding, access to climate information, access to credit facilities, and access to extension services as important determinants of adaptation. This research also found lack of access to climate information, lack of irrigation resources, and knowledge about appropriate adaptations as key constraints in adaptation process. This situation can be improved by enhancing institutional support and capacity. It is suggested that improved agricultural education with better access to climate information and extension services affects the farmers' well-being directly and hence is good for the economy of Pakistan.
本研究的主要目的是捕捉农民对农业部门气候变化的看法和适应。同时，它还确定了农民对感知到的气候变化的适应。对来自巴基斯坦旁遮普省三个不同农业生态区的 386 名农民的数据应用二元逻辑模型，对现有文献中缺失的不同适应策略进行全面分析。二元逻辑模型的系数仅解释了变化的方向；因此，为了看到变化的幅度，还估计了边际效应。研究结果表明，农民感知到了气候变化，并选择了不同的适应策略。二元逻辑模型的结果描述了年龄、教育、农业经验、土地持有量、获得气候信息、获得信贷设施和获得推广服务等因素是适应的重要决定因素。本研究还发现，缺乏气候信息、缺乏灌溉资源以及缺乏适当适应措施的知识是适应过程中的关键制约因素。这种情况可以通过加强制度支持和能力来改善。研究建议，通过改善农业教育，更好地获得气候信息和推广服务，直接影响农民的福祉，从而有利于巴基斯坦的经济。
