Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
Prev Med. 2021 Feb;143:106331. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2020.106331. Epub 2020 Nov 21.
Although lockdown measures to stop COVID-19 have direct effects on disease transmission, their impact on violent and accidental deaths remains unknown. Our study aims to assess the early impact of COVID-19 lockdown on violent and accidental deaths in Peru. Based on data from the Peruvian National Death Information System, an interrupted time series analysis was performed to assess the immediate impact and change in the trend of COVID-19 lockdown on external causes of death including homicide, suicide, and traffic accidents. The analysis was stratified by sex and the time unit was every 15 days. All forms of deaths examined presented a sudden drop after the lockdown. The biggest drop was in deaths related to traffic accidents, with a reduction of 12.22 deaths per million men per month (95% CI: -14.45, -9.98) and 3.55 deaths per million women per month (95% CI:-4.81, -2.30). Homicide and suicide presented similar level drop in women, while the homicide reduction was 2.5 the size of the suicide reduction in men. The slope in homicide in men during the lock-down period increased by 6.66 deaths per million men per year (95% CI:3.18, 10.15). External deaths presented a sudden drop after the lockdown was implemented and an increase in homicide in men was observed. Falls in mobility have a natural impact on traffic accidents, however, the patterns for suicide and homicide are less intuitive and reveal important characteristics of these events, although we expect all of these changes to be transient.
尽管为阻止 COVID-19 而采取的封锁措施对疾病传播有直接影响，但它们对暴力和意外死亡的影响仍不清楚。我们的研究旨在评估 COVID-19 封锁对秘鲁暴力和意外死亡的早期影响。基于秘鲁国家死亡信息系统的数据，我们进行了一项中断时间序列分析，以评估 COVID-19 封锁对包括凶杀、自杀和交通事故在内的外部原因死亡的直接影响和趋势变化。分析按性别和时间单位（每 15 天）分层。所有检查形式的死亡在封锁后都突然下降。降幅最大的是与交通事故相关的死亡，每月每百万人中有 12.22 人（95%CI：-14.45，-9.98）和 3.55 人（95%CI：-4.81，-2.30）死于交通事故。凶杀和自杀在女性中呈现出类似的下降水平，而男性的凶杀减少量是女性自杀减少量的 2.5 倍。封锁期间男性凶杀的斜率每年增加 6.66 人（95%CI：3.18，10.15）。实施封锁后，外部死亡人数突然下降，男性凶杀率上升。流动性下降对交通事故有自然影响，但自杀和凶杀的模式不太直观，揭示了这些事件的重要特征，尽管我们预计所有这些变化都是暂时的。
